The Government has finally bowed to common sense and given the green light to the Jackdaw gas field in the North Sea. It’s the sensible move and a good start, although a decision on Rosebank is not yet forthcoming. Given the resistance both projects have faced, it’s worth setting out why Jackdaw’s approval is good […]
When John Healey sits down next Wednesday, the press gallery will focus hard on his headroom against the fiscal rules. In March the OBR put this at £23.6 billion against the main rule, which requires day-to-day spending to be covered by revenue by 2029/30. A recent Reuters poll of economists suggests it has since shrunk […]
Let’s go fly a kite? There has been rather less briefing about proposals to be announced in next week’s Budget than in recent years. The Chancellor of the Exchequer, John Healey, has been far less forthcoming than his predecessors, Rachel Reeves and Jeremy Hunt, whose plans were dribbled out weeks in advance. Some have suggested […]
There wasn’t much to like about the previous iteration of this Labour Government but airport expansion was one of them. Rachel Reeves committed early on to expanding City airport, opening the baffling spare runway at Gatwick, expanding Luton and Stansted and building a third runway at Heathrow. It was an aviation extravaganza for London aimed […]
It’s never easy being young. The hormones, the debt, the uncertainty: the burden hangs heavy. Under Labour, it’s become even harder. In the period April-June this year, there were 981,000 Britons aged 16-24 classed as not in education, employment or training (NEET). This is both morally and fiscally unconscionable. Being a NEET is not fun, […]
The remarkable thing about Britain’s tax burden is that however high it rises, the government always manages to spend more than it can afford, and John Healey’s first Budget looks unlikely to be any different. Businesses are expected to swallow higher taxes, workers are expected to give up more of their earnings and anyone lucky […]
The IMF has just published its biannual World Economic Outlook. The report appeared to be modestly good news for the UK, predicting higher-than-expected economic growth of 1.3% in 2026, up from a 1% forecast in July. But one thing that caught my eye was the way that the IMF reported that the UK would see […]
‘Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in,’ says Michael Corleone in ‘The Godfather Part III’. A decade after we voted to leave the European Union, much of the establishment is still in denial about the verdict that was delivered. Andy Burnham has been absolutely shameless. Campaigning in the Makerfield by-election, […]
Under Westminster City Council’s planning policies you couldn’t build Parliament today. In the eyes of modern planners, the gothic revival Palace of Westminster would be considered ‘pastiche’ – and Westminster City Council writes on pastiche that: …pastiche designs, which are pale imitations of historic buildings, [are not] appropriate or desirable. There are lines like this […]
Andy Burnham used the Labour Party conference in Liverpool this week to commit the Government to a National Care Service, universal and free at the point of use, while promising to ‘stick to our fiscal rules to get borrowing and debt down’. The service is due in the next Parliament and is supposed to be […]
Picture the scene. A new Labour leader delivering his first speech as Prime Minister to the party conference, two years after a general election victory. The fiscal backdrop is poor, financial markets are not convinced by the credibility of UK economic policy and there is a deep divide between what his MPs want and what […]
The King of the North has spoken. In an emotive speech, Andy Burnham yesterday set out his vision for Britain. The Prime Minister pledged to put Britain ‘on a new path’, and cursed Margaret Thatcher and the 1980s for killing ‘working-class aspiration’. What lies down this new path? A route back to the decade that […]
On September 29, 1976, Britain’s Chancellor of the Exchequer, Denis Healey, announced his intention to apply to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a $3.9 billion loan, the largest ever requested. Britain, The Economist announced, was ‘bust’. This was a national humiliation, the crux of a decade of economic turmoil. Britain before 1979 was not […]
Why haven’t we grown in the last decade? We are experiencing the longest spell of workers experiencing no average wage growth in real terms for well over a century – ‘the longest in history since consistent wage records exist, dating back to Victorian times,’ as a paper in the Oxford Review of Economic Policy shows. […]
There is a standard response from any Chancellor or Prime Minister asked questions about government finances: ‘I am not going to write the Budget in front of you’. And neither should they. The Budget is a potentially market-moving financial event. The figures it contains have to add up, make sense. The measures have to be […]
This morning, John Healey delivered his first major speech as Chancellor. He set out his vision for the economy and, while it was encouraging to hear his determination to drive growth and solve the NEET crisis, all while claiming to be committed to fiscal discipline, it was quite light on detail. However, one specific point […]
Dear Andy Burnham, Firstly, I must congratulate you on your new role. I am sorry that I have not written to you sooner and I know that you’ve technically been in post for a while now. In my defence though, you did go away almost immediately after taking office. The reason that I am writing […]
The ‘moron premium’ is back with a vengeance this week, with 10-year gilt yields approaching 5.30%, their highest since 2007, while the 30-year is again threatening 6%. Pantheon Macroeconomics estimates that higher borrowing costs have cut the Chancellor’s fiscal headroom from £23.6 billion to around £13 billion. Meaning almost £11bn has disappeared before the Budget […]
When Andy Burnham arrived at No 10 in July he came with a bold message of change. 40 years of neoliberalism have left Britain hollowed out: wealth has drained from those with the least to those with the most; capital ran riot while the state stood back and watched. It’s a powerful story, and evidently […]
Alan Greenspan was always attacked by the Left because of his belief in market forces. John Kenneth Galbraith, at a White House conference, made fun of him, saying that the cure for inflation is always the same for ‘Bolsheviks and the devoted supporters of Ayn Rand’. But each and every government learns the hard way […]
This week, consultation closed on the Government’s proposals to place further restrictions on the use of zero-hour contracts. Labour’s intention was signalled in last year’s Employment Rights Act, which obliges employers to offer a guaranteed-hours contract based on the average hours worked in a ‘reference period’, to give workers ‘reasonable notice’ of shifts, and to […]
More than 20 million people across England and Wales are currently under hosepipe bans. This should be no surprise following the driest July on record, with the Met Office provisionally recording just 5.6mm of rain across England, less than half the previous record, set in 1911. But how much of the blame can be laid […]
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