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Economics

Forget Manchesterism – try Adam Smith

In Gordium, the capital of Phrygia, stood an oxcart, its yoke connected to the pole by a knot of cornel bark so intricate that no one could find where it began or ended. An oracle promised that whoever undid it would rule all Asia. For generations, clever men picked at it, theorised, and organised what […]

Why JD Vance is wrong about GDP
Economics

Why JD Vance is wrong about GDP

The Great Depression was bad, but how bad was it exactly? In its early days, people spent a lot of time arguing over specific metrics like steel output or share prices, but the US Congress wanted a way to quantify how bad things were for the economy as a whole. In 1932, Congress commissioned Simon […]

Economics

Britain is going bankrupt in slow motion

The OBR’s latest Fiscal Risks and Sustainability report, published this week, gives a blunt assessment of the UK’s public finances: we can’t go on like this. If nothing changes, government debt will rise to an unsustainable 300% of GDP in 50 years’ time. How did things get so bad? Well, there’s one big demographic challenge […]

Manchesterism's first big test is the bond markets
Economics

Manchesterism’s first big test is the bond markets

Here it comes again. Whoever Andy Burnham chooses to be his Chancellor of the Exchequer will face the same challenge as all their predecessors since Gordon Brown: producing ‘fiscal rules’ to reassure the City they will be prudent holders of the nation’s credit card. With Britain’s national debt higher than it’s been for decades, and […]

Labour can be a party of growth – but not like this
Labour

Labour can be a party of growth – but not like this

‘It is time for Whitehall to accept that growth cannot be ordered from the top down,’ Andy Burnham said in his first major speech since returning to Parliament. ‘Instead, it can only be nurtured from the bottom up.’ He is right. The man about to enter Downing Street has seen what much of his party […]

Economics

Economics

James Watt’s return is good for British beer

As the Sex Pistols sounded the last honk of their guitar amps in a San Francisco rock venue in 1978, Johnny Rotten leered over the crowd one final time. “Ever get the feeling you’ve been cheated?” A strange question to ask a group of punks perhaps, if one made more explicable by Rotten’s swift departure […]

Taxation

Burnham’s fantasy about ‘trickle down economics’

In a recent speech, Andy Burnham, Makerfield’s new MP and likely our next PM, said he would end ‘trickle-down’ economics. What on earth was he talking about? The Left often accuses the Right – and particularly the last Conservative government – of practising this voodoo art form. Supposedly, right-wingers give tax breaks to the ‘rich’ […]

Capitalism

True Manchesterism was everything Burnham opposes

Since Andy Burnham became the Mayor of Manchester in 2017, the term Manchesterism has taken on a new meaning. To him, it stands for the expansion of the public sector and a managerial state. Now, with Keir Starmer on the brink of resignation and Burnham’s Makerfield by-election win clearing his path to Westminster, Britain may […]

AI

To compete with the US on AI, the British need to cut energy bills

Last Friday, the most capable AI model in the world went dark. Anthropic had released Fable 5 three days earlier; on June 12, a U.S. executive order cut off access for foreign nationals. With no clean way to wall Americans off from the rest of us inside a global system used by hundreds of millions […]

Capitalism

Labour’s misguided egalitarianism is about to get worse

Some are saying they don’t know what Andy Burnham’s big ideas are. They don’t know what he will try to achieve when he becomes prime minister. On GB News earlier this week, Boris Johnson described Burnham as a ‘mascaraed Mancunian mystery’. It is a peculiar concern. Burnham’s ideology seems to me no harder to identify […]

Economics

Who will be the next Chancellor?

Keir Starmer is now an empty-vessel Prime Minister, nominally in office but visibly out of power. His fall from grace after Labour’s emphatic win almost two years ago brings an end to stage one of a government in collapse. Starmer has gone from weak leader to lame duck in a matter of days, and Andy […]

Andy Burnham is coming for Downing Street. Be afraid
Labour

Burnham’s people

When Andy Burnham enters No10 in weeks the pressure to implement new policy will be massive. The advisers who hold his ear will try to act fast, thinking that they have learnt the lesson from Starmer’s processology. Labour MPs have made their desire for ‘big change’ known for months but have failed to articulate it […]

Investment

What the Left doesn’t get about investment

The UK has the lowest business investment of any G7 country. The last time its business investment stood above the G7 median as a proportion of GDP, John Major was Prime Minister. The Labour government’s instinct, both in its manifesto and in practice, reflects the old Keynesian mindset that “The duty of ordering the current […]

Brexit

The economic case for Brexit still stands – it’s now time to pursue Wohlstand für Alle

As we reflect on the decade since the EU referendum, one question is seemingly on everyone’s lips – was it worth it? I answer this with an unequivocal yes. Brexit has definitely been worth it.  When I speak to people, the motivation behind this question often seems to be driven by a feeling that politicians […]

Brexit

A Remainer repents

I was going to open this column by listing the soppy reasons I was a Remainer: the EU represented a model of tolerance, compassion and partnership that would contribute to a more peaceful world; Brexit was revolutionary, therefore unconservative; abandoning our closest trade partnership would harm the economy. These are all perfectly good arguments which […]

Labour

We will miss Keir Starmer

The Greek poets understood that the cruellest fate is not the one a man brings upon himself, but the one that was waiting for him before he arrived. Oedipus did not choose his fate, indeed he walked into it with the very best of intentions. So too, in his quieter and more lawyerly fashion, did […]

Defence

Why more defence spending won’t fix Britain’s defence

In what could have been a comment on Scotland’s low-scoring, but nevertheless clean sheet-keeping win against Haiti in the World Cup, Adam Smith once remarked: ‘Defence is of much more importance than opulence’. But for too long now, Britain has had too little of either. The lack of capable military force has prompted (at the […]

Economics

Reeves is closer to an IMF bailout than she thinks

Britain’s national debt is on course for £3 trillion this year. Servicing it costs £30 billion a year at 1% interest and £150 billion at 5%, near where long-dated gilts have recently been trading. That’s a number so big it almost becomes meaningless. So, let’s try another way: it’s about the yearly gross pay of […]

What the World Cup tells us about free trade
Trade

What the World Cup tells us about free trade

The World Cup starts today and for the first time in over 30 years it is being held in North America. Not only is this exciting news for football fans, it should also be of interest to free trade enthusiasts, as the last time it was held there the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) […]

Politics

Our politicians need to get off the hamster wheel

September 2023: what a time that was to be alive. Aerosmith began their final ever tour, Kim Jong-Un arrived in Russia for an audience with Vladimir Putin and Rupert Murdoch stepped down from the boards of Fox and News Corp. It was a good month for news.  Yet that month another turning point in world […]

Ideas

What happens when liberalism loses?

June 4 marked the 37th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre. It has been a long time since the China of reform and opening-up gave way to one of the strangest regimes of our age: a country with the political freedoms of the Soviet Union but economic power approaching that of the United States, capable […]

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