The remarkable thing about Britain’s tax burden is that however high it rises, the government always manages to spend more than it can afford, and John Healey’s first Budget looks unlikely to be any different. Businesses are expected to swallow higher taxes, workers are expected to give up more of their earnings and anyone lucky […]
Andy Burnham used the Labour Party conference in Liverpool this week to commit the Government to a National Care Service, universal and free at the point of use, while promising to ‘stick to our fiscal rules to get borrowing and debt down’. The service is due in the next Parliament and is supposed to be […]
So, this week financial markets started pricing four or even five Bank of England rate rises over the next year. On the evidence in front of me today, that is lunacy. In fact, I called it rubbish on GB News yesterday lunchtime. Against that backdrop, the Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate by 25 […]
The ‘moron premium’ is back with a vengeance this week, with 10-year gilt yields approaching 5.30%, their highest since 2007, while the 30-year is again threatening 6%. Pantheon Macroeconomics estimates that higher borrowing costs have cut the Chancellor’s fiscal headroom from £23.6 billion to around £13 billion. Meaning almost £11bn has disappeared before the Budget […]
People argue endlessly about Britain’s tax burden – now the highest since the Second World War – but almost nothing is said about the time businesses lose to compliance. No Chancellor stands at the despatch box and tells firms they are about to spend another few billion pounds’ worth of working time satisfying new rules. […]
An index-linked gilt – known as a linker in City speak – is a government IOU whose principal and interest payments rise with the Retail Prices Index (RPI). Inflation erodes the value of an ordinary bond; a linker compensates the holder for it. The post-Covid inflation shock showed why anybody would want one. Inflation, thought […]
Britain’s spending and tax choices now fall to John Healey. My expectation? Higher spending, higher taxes and meaningless tweaks to welfare reform. Tuesday’s decision to cut VAT from domestic electricity bills could save the average household around £45 a year. Fine as far as it goes. But it will do nothing to boost productivity, stimulate […]
Rachel Reeves has found another group of taxpayers to squeeze: graduates who still think they have a student loan rather than a second income tax. At the 2025 Budget, she froze the Plan 2 student loan repayment threshold at £29,385 for three years from April 2027, rather than uprating it with earnings. Freezing a threshold […]
Keir Starmer is now an empty-vessel Prime Minister, nominally in office but visibly out of power. His fall from grace after Labour’s emphatic win almost two years ago brings an end to stage one of a government in collapse. Starmer has gone from weak leader to lame duck in a matter of days, and Andy […]
Britain’s national debt is on course for £3 trillion this year. Servicing it costs £30 billion a year at 1% interest and £150 billion at 5%, near where long-dated gilts have recently been trading. That’s a number so big it almost becomes meaningless. So, let’s try another way: it’s about the yearly gross pay of […]
This week I was fortunate enough to sit down with the Rt Hon Liz Truss. We discussed the usual things you expect. The state of the UK economy, the Bank of England, the Civil Service, and to quote Truss, how ‘Power was taken from the elected and given to progressive bureaucrats and judges’. I must […]
The bond market has finally lost patience with Labour. The 10-year gilt yield this week is back above 5% – around 5.09% as I write – its highest since the 2008 financial crisis. The 30-year gilt has touched 5.81%, its highest since 1998. Labour’s credibility is being repriced in real time. And the omens are […]
After nearly two decades of weak growth, stagnant wages and stubbornly high inequality – alongside one of the worst productivity records in the developed world since the financial crisis – Britain’s central problem is how to get the economy growing again. We don’t build enough homes. We don’t generate enough cheap energy. We don’t invest […]
This week the IMF cut its forecast for UK growth by a hefty 0.5 percentage points to 0.8% for 2026, the sharpest downgrade of any G7 economy. The OECD last week went lower still, to 0.7%, leaving the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecast of 1.1% looking increasingly optimistic. Britain cannot afford to persist with an […]
When oil prices rise, economists ask what it means for inflation. Politicians ask what it means for voters. Since the Iran conflict and the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, that has become the more urgent question. This is no longer just a macro and monetary policy story. It is a cost-of-living story. And in […]
The latest surge in oil prices, following the US-Israeli confrontation with Iran, has revived a familiar warning about stagflation and recession, and if Britain may be about to relive the 1970s. That comparison is not absurd. But it is often badly misunderstood. The central lesson of the 1970s was not that oil prices rose. It […]
An unsettling look at the economic settlement that Britain now seems willing to accept can be found in this week’s latest fiscal forecast. By the end of the forecast period, borrowing will have decreased from 5.2% of GDP in 2024–2025 to about 1.6%. Public debt stabilises at roughly 95% of national income. At those levels, […]
Monetary policy errors are rarely obvious in real time. More often, they emerge slowly – the product of frameworks that persist beyond the conditions that once justified them. Britain now risks drifting into precisely such a moment. The Bank of England spent the better part of two years extinguishing the most severe inflation shock in […]
Britain’s economic debate rests on a dangerous assumption. Debt crises are things that happen elsewhere. Greece, perhaps. Argentina, certainly. But not the United Kingdom – a mature economy with its own currency, deep capital markets and centuries of institutional credibility. History offers little comfort to countries that think this way. Countries rarely enter fiscal crisis […]
For much of the decade before the Covid pandemic, Britain’s inflation problem was its absence. Prices rose too slowly. Policymakers fretted about deflation, secular stagnation and the limits of monetary policy. Interest rates hovered near zero. Quantitative easing was deployed not to restrain demand, but to stimulate it – often with disappointing results, unless you […]
