Later this month, Richard Tice, deputy leader of Reform UK, will meet Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England. Whether it happens before or after the next interest rate decision on September 18 hardly matters, for it is the symbolism that counts. A party still dismissed by many has become the only political force […]
Across the Channel, France is staring down a full-blown fiscal crisis. Public debt has hit 114% of GDP, with the IMF expecting it to rise beyond 116% in the months ahead. The deficit is on track for 5.4% this year. Investors have finally lost patience with the French state’s long-standing habit of spending like Louis […]
Last Thursday, the Bank of England pulled off a remarkable feat: it cut interest rates and still managed to spook the markets. The Monetary Policy Committee scraped through a 5–4 majority for a quarter-point cut to 4%, only succeeding on a second attempt. One member, Alan Taylor, had initially argued for twice as much. The […]
A staggering £1.2 trillion. That’s what it took to rescue Britain’s banks in 2008 – £133 billion in hard cash and over a trillion more in guarantees and non-cash support, according to the National Audit Office. Most of those guarantees were never drawn upon. But the damage was done. Confidence in the financial system collapsed. […]
It will begin, as financial crises so often do, not with a bang, but a murmur. A failed gilt auction. A modest rise in yields. A subtle but persistent shift in investor sentiment. No panic, no headlines – just the quiet sound of markets beginning to lose faith. For years, Britain has indulged in a […]
It’s not yet official, but the markets have already passed their verdict. Gilt yields surged again yesterday – with ten-year rates brushing 4.68% – as investors digested yet another fiscal U-turn and a visibly shaken Chancellor. The message could not be clearer: there is no plan, no discipline and no credibility left. The much vaunted […]
The Bank of England’s decision to hold interest rates at 4.25% may have been widely expected, but that doesn’t make it right. With unemployment rising, growth fading and inflation falling, the case for a pre-emptive rate cut was compelling. Yet the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has again chosen inaction. This might be defensible if Britain […]
There’s a well-worn habit in politics: seize on a big number and offer a simple fix, without fully understanding the system that produced it. Reform UK’s proposal to scrap interest payments on commercial bank reserves, purportedly saving the taxpayer £35 billion a year, is a textbook case. It’s bold, headline-grabbing and superficially appealing. But economically, […]
As the Chancellor delivers her Spring Statement today – or, to call it what it really is, an emergency Budget – and declares for the umpteenth time that growth is this government’s defining mission, I can’t help but ask: where is monetary policy in this conversation? Tax and planning reform, net zero initiatives, public investment […]
