A Tory leader of the opposition has the hardest job in British politics. The Conservatives regard themselves as the true national party, and the natural party of government. They believe that they should almost always be in power, and that if they are out of office, it must be the fault of the leadership. So muttering in the ranks is almost continuous.
Thus it was under Margaret Thatcher. As Tories celebrate her centenary, it is worth remembering that in her early days, there was a lot of discontent, especially when Jim Callaghan took over from Harold Wilson. In the Commons, she rarely got the better of him. It would have been harder these days because he would have been accused of sexism (guilty as charged) but back then, he was able to patronise her. In his body language, he was almost saying: ‘There, there, you silly girl, you’re getting carried away again. I’ve told you, calm down and leave these important matters to those who understand them.’
It is still worth speculating as to what would have happened if he had gone to the country in the autumn of 1978, before Labour’s pay policy imploded and the Callaghan government’s claim to be able to work together with the trades unions gave way to the Winter of Discontent. The autumn contest of 1978 would have been a damned near-run thing. History might have been different.
Equally, suppose you had said back in 1976 that under a Thatcher Premiership, the trade unions would be brought under the rule of law, the nationalised industries would no longer have the unlimited right to plunder the fisc, income tax rates would be reduced to the lowest level since the war: there would have been sundry other successes such as a victory in the South Atlantic – and she would have helped an American President to win the Cold War. The result would have been peals of laughter and the suggestion that you might have been sitting in the sun for too long without a hat.
In those early days, absolutely no one would have predicted that she would turn into a world-historical statesman. In those days, most wise men at the top of politics thought – at least covertly – that in national affairs, the best to hope for was the orderly management of decline. Thatcher would have regarded any such talk as treacherous. At the time, she would have sounded shrill and unrealistic.
Thank God the detractors were wrong.
This does not mean, of course, that Kemi Badenoch will turn into a second Margaret Thatcher. For a start, Thatcher did not have to worry about Nigel Farage nor was she confronting a public mood mired in bitter disillusion with conventional politics. But there is one point in her favour. She seems to be coping with the strain. Those who work closely with her are unanimous on one point. Her confidence is undaunted.
That might seem surprising. One would have thought that there would have been dark nights of the political soul, when she must have wondered what had possessed her to run for the leadership in such unpropitious circumstances. If so, she has kept such doubts to herself.
Last week, she not only delivered a good speech which should have satisfied those many Tories who have been complaining about the shortage of policies. She came across as relaxed and likeable – almost serene. Most Tories left Manchester in far better spirits than they had expected.
Which leads to the next inevitable question: what next? Manchester created momentum. How can she keep that going?
There is an inevitable hiatus when all eyes are fixed on Gaza. But there is also an upcoming mid-term challenge, and opportunity. Rachel Reeves is due to deliver a Budget. It is surely inevitable that the outcome will be neither popular nor competent. The Chancellor will no doubt try to cheer up her troops with some cheap attempts at class hatred. She will also pretend that Liz Truss is the real leader of the opposition. But it should be possible to dissect all of that.
Kemi Badenoch might begin by agreeing with something that Keir Starmer often says: that it is vital to stimulate economic growth. She could then continue by saying that alas, there is a problem. He has no idea how to bring that about. Indeed, the actual measures which he and his Chancellor have promoted will have precisely the opposite effect. From employment to energy to enterprise in all its forms, this Government has a simple mantra. Wherever you see it, tax it and regulate it. If the Government had set out to reduce growth and damage every productive sector in the UK economy, they could not have done better. So when they claim to be in favour of promoting growth, there is only one conclusion to be drawn. They have no clue as to what they are doing.
Anything to do with Rachel Reeves ought to create ample scope for mockery. But Kemi Badenoch should go further by delivering ‘the Budget that the nation needs’ – repeating many of the points that she and Mel Stride made in Manchester. That would be one way of addressing a deeper difficulty. The Tory leader will have to persuade the public not only that she and her party can be trusted, but that the political process can be rescued from drift and negligence.
In that formidable task, she should not be afraid of a tactic and a strategy. The tactic is repetition. Stronger economy, stronger borders: she hammered those points home last week. She and her colleagues should continue to do so. Eventually, the public might listen.
The strategy is related. At present, there is an unmet public demand: to be taken seriously. A lot of people are fed up with being talked down to, so they might be prepared to believe in politicians who deliver a message with a quantum of intellectual content. There is no reason why Badenoch and her front bench should be hesitant in doing that, especially as the limitations to Farage’s cheeky chappie act are becoming more apparent.
There is a mountain to climb, but a serious politician must not be afraid of heights. Although the challenges are huge, Kemi Badenoch has shown the ability to remain undaunted. That is something which should give her party a bit of much-needed reassurance.
Sir Keir Starmer has announced his resignation as Prime Minister – either from mid-July or from mid-September, depending on how the Labour leadership process goes (coronation vs contest). He will thus have been prime minister for somewhere between about 730 and 800 days, following his victory by a huge majority in the 2024 General Election. […]
The Greek poets understood that the cruellest fate is not the one a man brings upon himself, but the one that was waiting for him before he arrived. Oedipus did not choose his fate, indeed he walked into it with the very best of intentions. So too, in his quieter and more lawyerly fashion, did […]
This week, Nimby Watch is in Danson Park, Bexley, in South East London. But why? I see we’re in a park! You never bring me anywhere nice. It’s a particularly nice park, too! Danson Park, which celebrated its 100th birthday last year, has a lake – which hosts boating and water sports activities – football […]
