Could 2026 be the year of Kemi Badenoch?

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Kemi Badenoch had a rough start to her time at the Tory helm. When she was elected leader, the party had a net favourability of -30%. Yet after some time in the job, she has seemingly steadied the ship – with many Tory insiders declaring a ‘Badenoch bounce’. And now, as we head into the new year, the Conservatives are ahead of Labour for the first time since the general election. But now is not the time for complacency – Badenoch must continue to resist vested interests both from within the party and outside it. 

While there were grounds for criticism at the beginning of her leadership, since the Conservative Party conference, a feeling of positivity has surrounded her. A flurry of policy announcements including pledges to scrap stamp duty and withdraw Britain from the European Convention on Human Rights received widespread support, and helped to position Badenoch as conference season’s biggest winner. 

Coupled with this was her response to Rachel Reeves’ Budget in November. The message she sent at the despatch box was clear: the Budget was a failure, and Britons will be worse off as a result. She was quick to rally behind squeezed middle-income earners, and made the important point that welfare spending must be tamed, or risk public spending spiralling out of all control. 

In other words, she provided an example of what today’s Conservative Party should look like. A party with an agenda that supports those who work hard and pay in.

These two standout moments have helped Badenoch warm to voters. Although her recent positive polling may seem a far cry from the heights of previous years, to be in such a position when Reform UK are vacuuming up so much of the centre-right vote should be commended. Indeed, these numbers may well be intoxicating to Badenoch and her team. Yet much of her recent success in the polls could reasonably be put down to Labour’s poor record in government, rather than any genuine fondness for the Conservatives.

If she is to prove to MPs, party members and the wider public that she is serious about leading the Tories into the next election, she must get ahead of a number of issues.

Badenoch’s most pressing concern will be the upcoming local elections in May. While she has the advantage of going into the contests as the underdog, these elections will nonetheless serve as a test of her authority. No one believes that she needs a sweeping victory to cement her position, but underperformance will not do.

There are a handful of areas where it is critical the party has a good showing. Wandsworth, Barnet, Enfield and Westminster are all up for grabs, and if they turn blue then Badenoch will prove beyond a doubt that she is the right person to lead the party forward. But the shade of blue matters, and if she bleeds votes to Reform and fails to hold onto seats in a few select areas, then it could spell her end. It is a delicate tightrope that she must walk.

This lends itself to the second issue – a leadership challenge. This will almost certainly come from Robert Jenrick. The Shadow Justice Secretary’s leadership ambitions are perhaps the worst kept secret in Westminster, and a poor performance at the local elections will give him the necessary ammunition to launch a bid. However, doing this would carry grave risks for the party. Yet more regicide would likely confirm the suspicions of many that the Conservatives are nothing more than a club of conniving and scheming plotters who prioritise personal gain over principle. This could plunge the Tories even deeper into irrelevance.

These two issues are significant in the immediate short-term, but there is a wider, existential problem that Badenoch may well face in 2026 – the possibility of a pact with Reform. This would spell disaster for the Tories. 

History teaches this best. The Liberals, both in the 1920s and again in the 2010s, showed that the lesser partner in an electoral pact or coalition always suffers. With Nigel Farage already briefing donors that he expects to enter into a partnership with the Tories, Badenoch must put these rumours to bed and categorically rule out any form of deal with Reform. To strike a deal with Farage would show that the party is weak and willing to concede. The last thing that the British public will want to vote for is a party that does not believe in itself.

Badenoch has bounced back, though this does not mean her path forward is an easy one. She faces major challenges in the year ahead, but if she can tackle these head on while articulating a distinct, conservative vision for Britain, then perhaps her detractors will finally accept that she is the right person to lead the Tories into the next election. 

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