After the Conservatives suffered their third consecutive election defeat in 2005, Lord Ashcroft wrote a report entitled “Smell the Coffee: A wake-up call for the Conservative Party”, which illustrated how the Tories were then seen as out-of-touch, lagging behind New Labour on economic competence, and associated more with the past than with opportunity. Fifteen years […]
It’s widely accepted that that Brexit has divided opinion – 52-48 is a close result, and polling since 2016 has consistently shown that Britons remain pretty evenly divided on the subject. Likewise, many of the divides associated with the remain-leave cleavage are also well known; young versus old, metropolitan versus provincial, graduate versus non-graduate, and […]
Since last month’s general election, there’s been much talk about different types of constituencies, how they voted, and what the geography of party support tells us about how the country voted. But it also matters for how the next electoral map will be drawn. Among the many consequences of the Conservatives winning a clear majority […]
There’s been a lot of discussion since the election of the voters lost by Labour, after its vote collapsed in many of its traditional heartlands in the rust belt. Much of it has centred around habitual Labour voters who voted Leave and tend to be more socially conservative. Psephologists had already been watching this group […]
This election has been billed as one of the most unpredictable ever, and not unreasonably – it’s harder than usual to say with any confidence what will happen. But one thing we can confidently predict is that after Big Ben strikes 10, and the broadcasters’ exit poll is revealed, someone will question its results. The […]
During an election campaign opinion polls are monitored with great intensity, and not just by nervous partisans. In a high-stakes election, everyone wants to know who’s winning. But that’s easier said than done when there’s so much disagreement between polls. All of them show the Conservatives ahead – and probably by enough to win an […]
In the last fortnight, the Brexit landscape has shifted from deadlock with the chances of a no-deal Brexit rising, to a deal agreed with the EU finally passing a House of Commons vote (its second reading). But what does the public make of it, and has the deal moved the dial in a way that […]
It’s been said many times – and not without justification – that we are living through an exceptionally volatile period in British political history. And conference season, being one of the few political fixtures that consistently cuts through, often makes for lively polling results at the best of times. Add to that an eventful and […]
The House of Commons has again opted against providing the two-thirds support needed to hold an early general election. However, it will be hard to avoid one for much longer. And although the outcome remains far from clear at this stage, it’s interesting to consider where the election is likely to be won and lost. […]
After a Conservative leadership contest that seemed to have gone on for years, last month ended with Boris Johnson winning by a landslide, and becoming Prime Minister. The previous day, Jo Swinson had been elected leader of the Liberal Democrats, following a contest that had run more-or-less concurrently with its Tory counterpart. Changes of major […]
Fifty years ago today, Neil Armstrong, Edwin “Buzz” Aldrin and Michael Collins took off from Cape Canaveral in a Saturn V rocket as tall as a football pitch is long. Five days later they stepped out onto the surface of the moon, the first humans ever to do so. While the Apollo programme’s success was […]
It’s no longer news that voting intention polls have exhibited some dramatic moves lately. Although they have calmed down somewhat in terms of volatility, they remain at extreme levels, with two polls in the last week putting the top four parties within three points of each other, something that had never previously happened. Polling always […]
I wrote last month that British politics was witnessing an extreme level of fragmentation. Little has happened since to change that assessment, and indeed the last 24 hours have seen two data points underline it. The Peterborough by-election saw the Conservative and Labour combined share collapse from 95 per cent in 2017 to 52 per […]
Today’s confirmation of Theresa May’s departure from Downing Street brings into focus the next major item on the political agenda – the contest to choose her successor. Once the Conservative MPs themselves have their say, the choice of the final two will be made by Conservative members. So what do they think? Since this ‘selectorate’ […]
For a year or more after the 2017 election, your columnist’s most frequently asked question from politicians, journalists and many others, was why the polls have remained so stable, in spite of all the political turbulence. That has completely changed in recent months, with the latest figures showing particularly dramatic moves. So what should we […]
Today marks the 40th anniversary of the 1979 general election. On a swing of just over 5 per cent, Margaret Thatcher’s Conservatives took 45 per cent of the popular vote in Great Britain, winning with a majority of 44 – the first of her three election victories. Those of us who like statistics and historical […]
Competition is a central tenet of a market economy. As long as scarcity exists, not all wants can be fulfilled, so economic actors must compete for scarce resources. This is, of course, something far more straightforward to those versed in economic theory than it is to the average consumer. It’s interesting, therefore, to examine what […]
As the Brexit crisis continues, many have expressed astonishment that the Labour Party has not (yet) been able to build up a substantial lead in voting intention polls. Their surprise is understandable – the government’s handling of Brexit is rated extremely poorly by the public, yet the governing party doesn’t appear to be paying much […]
It’s no longer particularly controversial to say that Brexit isn’t going well. Polls have consistently shown that the public thinks so across the board, and on Wednesday a Sky Data survey found that 90 per cent thought the way the UK was handling its departure was “a national humiliation”. It’s hard to avoid the conclusion […]
After a couple of years that have seen a seemingly endless string of new centrist parties, usually with more Twitter followers than voters, last week finally saw the formation of The Independent Group, which at the very least has MPs and, for now, a substantial media presence. Early polling on TIG is difficult to interpret […]
