So far our series of polling into the big economic and political questions has studiously avoided direct polling of the issue of the day. But voters’ views on Brexit are can predict their views on other subjects. We found, for example, that Leavers were much likelier than Remainers to have protectionist views on trade policy, […]
Last week, polling for CapX found broad agreement that there is a housing crisis in Britain, though people in all regions thought it was less bad in their local area, with politicians the most likely culprits in the eyes of voters. This week we turn to opponents of development – habitually feared by governments – […]
The third and fourth parts of our Battle of Ideas series consider an issue that has quietly been moving up the political agenda – housing. As I’ve argued previously, the 2017 “youthquake” was in fact a rentquake, and the difficulties facing younger would-be homeowners are of far greater political significance than is commonly acknowledged. For […]
For the second part of CapX’s latest series of polling on some of the biggest questions in the political and economic battle of ideas, we look at government spending. But this time with a twist. Opinion polling, besides doing what it says on the tin and polling opinion, can also be used to quiz the […]
Polling very often focusses on short-term newsflow, and given how it is consumed that is no great surprise. But many questions are more fundamental in nature. The first Number Cruncher/CapX Battle of Ideas polling series probed public opinion on a series of important debates,from ideology to business, protectionism, taxation and localism. Today we begin a second series delving deeper into […]
A new year brings with it new topics. But it’s interesting to look back at 2018 and recall what we learnt from polling during what was, to put it mildly, an eventful year. We didn’t learn much about changes in voting intention because there were hardly any. The Conservatives and Labour started the year right […]
One fascinating theme when looking across the history of politics in general, and of public opinion in particular, is that the great philosophical debates of one era simply don’t crop up in another. Some of the great ideological clashes of the 1970s and 80s around the size of role of the state, for example, became […]
Immigration has been one of the most contentious political issues of recent times. In its long-awaited White Paper published this week, the government set out its plans for the system once free movement with the EEA ends. But what do British voters actually think about it? It’s fair to say that, as a whole, they […]
With the dust settled, for the time being at least, on the question of Theresa May’s leadership, attention turns to what happens next. Much of the focus will be on Parliament, the deal, the internal politics of the Conservative Party, and so on. But what about the voters? We don’t yet have much information about […]
Why did that happen? When seeking to explain events it may be tempting, even logical, to think in terms of cause and effect. Certainly to anyone with a background in the natural sciences, it is intuitive. The same experiment under the same conditions produces the same result. But when it comes to social or political […]
As Westminster continues to be consumed by Brexit and how Britain should proceed, one topic that has begun to be discussed more seriously than it had previously is the possibility of a second EU referendum. The change in rhetoric, if not policy, from senior Labour figures (John McDonnell this week used the word “inevitable”) will […]
As things stand, Theresa May’s Brexit deal seems very unlikely to pass. Though there is some evidence that the public has become a bit more supportive since its strongly negative initial reaction, the Withdrawal Agreement does not currently have anywhere near the votes needed to pass the House of Commons. One theory, which was originally attributed […]
Things have been moving so fast in the world of Brexit this week that it isn’t easy for anyone to keep up – least of all pollsters, whose fieldwork takes hours at a minimum (and ideally, much longer). So it’s perhaps a measure of the significance of this situation that at the time of writing […]
Sometimes an election result doesn’t deliver a clear, unambiguous, narrative. Yesterday’s US midterms fit that category, with the overall picture being very close to the midpoint of what had been widely expected beforehand. In absolute terms, these were good results for the Democrats, as is often the case for an opposition party in midterms, taking […]
Budget week is a good time to think about the importance of the economy at the ballot box. As our battle of ideas polling series highlighted, economic policies often divide public opinion, and not always along party lines to the extent you might think. But when it comes to the things that drive votes, the […]
Last weekend saw one of the biggest ever public protests in Britain, with organisers claiming more than 700,000 people took to the streets of London to support a second Brexit referendum. The scale of this demonstration led some to describe it as “too big to ignore”. How we assess that claim depends to a large […]
“What did you have for breakfast this morning?” That’s something that broadcast media guests get asked surprisingly often. It’s also the reason why Angela Eagle, much to the confusion of Twitter, began an interview about her withdrawal from the 2016 Labour leadership contest by announcing that she’d had porridge that day. If you’re wondering, the question is […]
With conference season over, we’re beginning to get the first indications of how the annual party gatherings affected voting intention. Much has been said and written, but what did the public actually make of it all? The three polls we have so far, with changes compared with the same pollster’s last poll before 15th September, are: […]
The home of what used to be called microblogging is synonymous with news delivery and political debate. Twitter is a place where the news is made and where people try to make sense of the news. It is incredibly useful to anyone – not least yours truly – who wants to contribute information or ideas […]
Brits have long been a nation of homeowners and aspiring homeowners. Just why we have this culture of home ownership isn’t easy to answer. But, for politicians and policymakers, the reasons are less important than the consequences. Polling commissioned by the Centre for Policy Studies found that only three per cent of young voters never […]
