Longstanding outlets like Debenhams and Topshop are just some of the brands to have disappeared from the high street in recent years. The fall of these megaliths, coupled with the rise of internet shopping, has led many to start mourning the death of the high street.
This worries politicians. High streets are bellwethers of the performance of an area’s economy. MPs and Lords have used the phrase ‘high street’ over 3,300 times in parliament since 2020. And the Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak governments were particularly alert to it, announcing a plethora of high street funds and initiatives.
While the high street is certainly struggling in some places, it isn’t everywhere.
The Centre for Cities’ latest report shows how high street performance varies across the country. In the centre of London, Brighton and Cambridge, fewer than one in 11 high street units have the shutters down. In the centre of Newport, Blackpool and Bradford, it is more than double this – close to one in five units is empty.
This variation is the result of how different places have responded to the growing challenges of out-of-town and online retail, which in turn is determined by the underlying strength of the economy of each place.
Both these challenges have squeezed high street retail across the country. When people once would have gone to buy a fridge, TV or PC from a Debenhams or Currys in the centre of town, now they’ll likely go to a retail park or buy from Amazon.
Places with strong high streets have responded to this by pivoting away from retail towards food. In more affluent York and Edinburgh, £1 in every £4 is now spent on food. Meanwhile in Bradford, Stoke and Wigan, it is around £1 in every £10.
This pivot has happened because of the amount of money people in these places have in their pockets, and also to attract tourists. People have money to spend. They just want to spend it on things you can’t buy on the internet, like a meal out. The private sector has duly responded, turning the Currys into a curry house and Woolworths into Wagamama.
The lack of money in the pockets of people in areas where the high street struggles has meant that there hasn’t been the same increase in demand to eat out. And so the vacated retail space has more likely remained empty.
The result is that most places with high vacancies now have too many shopfronts. In high-vacancy centres like Blackpool and Birkenhead, there are more than 2 shops per 1,000 people living in their catchment areas – with lots sitting empty. In low-vacancy places like Brighton and Liverpool, it’s around 1 shop per 1,000 people.
This oversupply to a degree masks the activity that does happen on these high streets. Central Newport has around 400 occupied shops, which is similar to the number in lower-vacancy Milton Keynes. The issue is that its retail footprint is too big for the size of its catchment, and this pushes the vacancy rate up.
These findings mean that those places with high vacancy rates have three main choices. They can focus on improving the strength of the economy, increasing the amount of money in people’s pockets and so raise demand for high street spending. They can increase the size of their catchment populations by building more homes close to the city centre. And they can remove surplus space to ‘right size’ their offer, much like Stockton has done.
All three options point to a remodelling of struggling city centres, building new office space, converting empty space and knocking down redundant space. This of course requires money. But money for capital investment is something the Government has, with the recent spending review earmarking £113 billion for capital projects in the coming years.
Given this, the Government should do two things. First, it should classify city centres as national infrastructure, alongside more ‘traditional’ types of infrastructure so that they are accounted for in infrastructure investment decisions. And second, it should allocate £5bn of its planned investment programme to fund this remodelling.
The problem the Government has is that the performance of high streets will likely inform how people vote at the next general election, and none of these are quick fixes. But getting started on them now is visible and its impact on voters more immediate. Turning the ship around in many places will take time. But demonstrating you’ve got hold of the wheel is something that can be done tomorrow.
