When it comes to deploying trenchant language, the military are superb. In only five letters, a crisp, plosive obscenity, they provide a perfect description of the Starmer government: SNAFU – ‘situation normal, all fucked up’. If greater length is required, let us say that Keir Starmer and his colleagues are suffering a political, intellectual and moral implosion. You might conclude that matters cannot get any worse, yet that would mean underestimating this lot. Somehow, they find a way. Indeed, it is fortunate that the British economy is still relatively resilient, otherwise there could be a fourth element to the degringolade. But the Budget is still on its way.
Has ever an occasion as serious as the upcoming Budget been so degraded? There used to be a rule, which worked well: Budget purdah. In the weeks leading up to the big day, Treasury ministers and their officials accepted significant restraints on their social life. Although there would be endless speculation, those who knew the truth were determined not to provide any information. Now, we have had a farcical succession of leaks, non-leaks and will-she-won’t-shes. At times. we were told that the Chancellor had not made up her mind. To that, there is an obvious response. Is there a mind to make up?
A Budget ought to embody three crucial Cs: clarity, coherence and certainty. The latter is not always easy. For obvious reasons, businessmen always want certainty, yet we live in an uncertain world. But as long as the Chancellor appears to have a firm grip on reality, a fourth ‘C’ can help; confidence.
There is no sign that Rachel Reeves herself has any confidence. In that case, she may have some self-awareness.
To use another term often used by soldiers, why has everything gone pear-shaped? There is one basic reason. This lot never knew what they wanted to do. Yes, they claimed to be in favour of economic growth, but they seemed to have no idea how to bring that about. Send Lord Alli another wish list, perhaps?
They did start out with one objective: to rubbish their predecessors’ record and claim that they had left everything in a mess: the fiscal black hole. The previous chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, counter-attacked effectively. The only hole in sight was the grey one, in Reeves’s CV. But damage had been done. If the Government thought that the economy was enveloped in gloom, why should the bond markets and business investors have any confidence in Britain? The very people who ought to have been promoting growth were discouraged from doing so.
It seems unlikely that the Starmerites paid much attention to Margaret Thatcher’s record. If they had done so, they ought to have understood one reason for her successes: animal spirits. These may not be easily quantifiable in statistical terms, but it is easy to tell when they are present, or absent. Thatcher encouraged them. The current Government discourages them. The consequence? Growth stumbles.
There will be little in the Budget to put that right. The Chancellor is bound to freeze income tax allowances, in the hope that no one will notice. A ‘no one notices’ Budget is the best that the Chancellor can hope for. Beyond that, there are bound to be a number of mean-spirited class war inspired hits at the rich. That will do nothing for growth. Thatcher would have reminded us that a society in which no one is allowed to grow rich is one in which everyone is condemned to be poor. That is far too commonsensical for the Starmerites.
On Wednesday, Kemi Badenoch will face the hardest job in British politics: the opposition leader’s response to the Budget. I suspect that she will do well and hit hard.
That would inevitably bring more rumours about plots against Starmer. The evidence seems to be that he is determined to carry on, or at least stumble on. But as long as he stays in No 10, he will do so as a weak leader presiding over a weakling Government and a demoralised party: in office, yes – but not in power.
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