Are we witnessing a transient storm, after which the climate will return to normal, or is it an earthquake, leading to a fundamentally changed political landscape? To judge by Kemi Badenoch’s latest speech – delivered at the ARC Conference – she believes that Britain specifically, and the West in general, are both facing a crisis of confidence and a threat to values. This will, of course, mean a threat to our political order, starting with the party system.

Every boy or every gal is born to be a little Liberal or a little Conservative, proclaimed Gilbert and Sullivan. The Liberals ultimately gave way, but the principle remained the same. For a hundred years, two major parties dominated British politics: an important aspect of political stability. That is now under threat, as is another related aspect of public life: confidence in the rule of law.

Why do we obey the law? There is one obvious answer: fear of the penalties for disobedience. But in a successful society, law-abiding should not merely be a negative phenomenon. On the whole, despite frequent grumbling, the British would prefer to respect their institutions and those who direct them. We must not exaggerate. After all, when Douglas Jay declared that the gentleman in Whitehall does know best, he was greeted with derision which lasted for decades. Even so, the British would expect public business to be conducted with a certain decorum. The public space should not be a dispiriting conflict between anarchy and the constable.

For a number of reasons, that may have changed. Social media is part of the explanation. As for the constable, there is a constant succession of stories relating to police misconduct. All the opinion polls suggest that respect for the police has declined, one reason being the triumph of anarchy in so many shops, as thieves run rampant and the constable is nowhere to be seen: too busy truckling to wokery. There has also been a loss of respect for the judiciary. When faced with a crime wave, most voters would be in favour of harsher sentences. When judges fail to oblige, criticism mounts.

But there is another factor contributing to this breakdown in trust. The attempt to maintain law and order in Britain often seems to be frustrated by Europe, especially when it comes to immigration. Britain is an island. It ought to be easy for us to control our borders. Yet the flow of illegal immigration continues and there are some cases which are almost designed to arouse public fury. Convicted criminals, scheduled for deportation, are allowed to remain because judges seem to have more sympathy for the foreign malefactor than for his victims, British subjects. We may have left the EU, but the power of the European Court of Human Rights seems unabated, with British judges content to act as its agents.

In view of all this, it is hardly surprising that there has also been a decline in respect for politicians. In part, this has been caused by the decision to televise the Commons. Bagehot warned of the danger that letting in daylight would undermine the Monarchy, which has in fact proved remarkably resilient. But the cameras have undoubtedly undermined the standing of MPs. No wonder the country is in such a mess – many viewers conclude – when those who are supposed to be making and safeguarding our laws behave like naughty schoolchildren.

As it happens, those viewers are wrong. Instalments of Prime Minister’s Questions are merely brief interludes of gladiatorial conflict, which do help to test our leaders’ mettle. The serious work of government plus the considerable expenditure of time takes place elsewhere. In response to that, much of the public would make the obvious retort: ‘well: they are not very good at that, are they?’ There, the discontented have a point, though not the one which they would expect.

Rishi Sunak was an able and serious administrator: the ideal civil servant with the qualities often inculcated by Winchester, the great school which he attended. There was only one problem. As a politician, he was too much of a Wykehamist.

Covid and Putin created a set of circumstances whose difficulty was unprecedented in peacetime. It may be that there were misjudgments, especially over lockdown. But many voters formed the impression that tax increases and higher inflation were the product of incompetence from a set of ministers who had grown exhausted after being in government for too long. There was no attempt to explain what had happened and why.

There may have been no way in which Sunak could have won the general election, but if he had been a half-way decent politician, he would not have crashed to such a catastrophic defeat. Even so, the belief that our current masters stumble from ineptitude to incompetence is widespread.

Although partly in coalition, the Tories were in power for 14 years. Now we have a new set of Ministers who seem exhausted after being in power for barely seven months. At the end of last year, Tories were beginning to experience something which they had never expected after such a brief interlude: hope. Back in July, many of them assumed that the party would be out for 10 years. Those were the optimists. Many others would have been delighted to accept such a short period in exile. Then suddenly they had an exciting new leader in Badenoch, while Starmer’s economic policy consisted of accepting freebies from Lord Alli, his powers of political explanation were devoted to defending a CV for Rachel Reeves and his claims to social generosity had turned into class hatred. The Tories had fallen victim to volatility. But volatility can easily switch direction.

Or indeed invent a new direction. Though Badenoch appeared to be well-placed to exploit Labour’s weakness, so was Nigel Farage. Badenoch may have been a new figure, but Farage and Labour joined in chorus to remind voters of the Tories’ record. Being a Tory Leader of the Opposition is one of the hardest jobs in British politics. You are under constant scrutiny from impatient colleagues. It should also be remembered that in her early years, Margaret Thatcher often ran into difficulties. Until the Winter of Discontent, it never seemed certain that she was going to win. If anything, Badenoch has performed better than Thatcher in her earlier phase, but Mrs T did not have to worry about Reform.

 Margaret Thatcher had one quality which Kemi Badenoch may lack: luck. The Winter of Discontent brought her to power and then the Labour Party descended into civil war. Today, however, the civil war is occurring on the Right as disaffected Tories flirt with Reform and complain that they do not know what Badenoch stands for: potentially a justified criticism.

So how can Badenoch deal with her alleged lack of clarity? In the absence of detailed policy, which will come later, she should attack under a simple battle-cry: Britain. She ought to stress her pride, as someone with an immigrant background, in her own Britishness and in British history. She believes that it is wrong for white British children to be taught that they should feel guilty about their own whiteness and their nation’s past, while black children are taught that in this hideously racist society, they are doomed to failure. In reality, they are in danger of failure because they are burdened by the soft bigotry of low expectations.

Badenoch should lay into all that nonsense. She should insist that Britain is a land full of opportunity, for all its people whatever their colour. As for those who believe that they are being held back, she should deliver a simple message: try harder.

In her latest speech, she stressed her commitment to British values. The criticisms that ensued were predictable. Lefties hate hearing abourt British values, especially from a black woman. Nor will Farage be pleased. He would like to reserve all those themes for himself.

Badenoch should take such flak as a sign she is over the target. She should repeat the message and go on repeating it. If all her colleagues would assist in this process by calming down and giving her support, it should not be impossible for her to regain the momentum which she seemed to have lost after Christmas. 

Bruce Anderson is a political commentator and freelance journalist.

Columns are the author's own opinion and do not necessarily reflect the views of CapX.