Europe can ill afford another failed state on the banks of the Mediterranean, but that is exactly what Lebanon may now become in the wake of last week’s tragic explosions. It is a country divided by sectarian violence, facing economic catastrophe and famine with no recognisable government. We in the intelligence community are all asking […]
As he walked the streets of Beirut in the aftermath of last week’s horrifying warehouse explosion, Emmanuel Macron cut an extraordinary figure. Here was the President of France, Lebanon’s former European mandate power (the title of ‘former imperial power’ perhaps better fits Turkey), being treated as a hero by a population simultaneously taking to the […]
“Democracy is like a bus-ride – once I get to my stop, I’m getting off,” once declared Turkish strongman Recep Tayyip Erdogan. For some this was nothing but an off-the-cuff remark that did not reflect Erdogan’s real beliefs. Until recently, European leaders sincerely held the view that, under his leadership, Turkey had a reformist government […]
“Ash-sha’b yuriid isqaat an-nizaam” was the chant that was born in Tunisia, spread throughout the Arab world and in March 2011, arrived in Dara’a, Syria. From there it became the slogan of the Syrian revolution. It translates to “The people want to bring down the regime”. This is what the Arab Spring was all about: […]
Though generally regarded as one of America’s most loyal and important allies, in recent years Israel has been making new friends. Since 2013, she has been developing a close new relationship with the US’ big strategic rival, China. That has meant growing commercial ties, including cooperation with the controversial Chinese telecomms giant Huawei, whose involvement […]
Sunday marked the latest in a series of worryingly similar knife attacks in London by released Islamist convicts. Last week, we saw President Trump’s ‘Deal of the Century’ between Israel and the Palestinians rejected out of hand by a large section of Arab public opinion. Both seem to indicate an angry binarism: East vs West, Arab versus […]
Is the great trade war coming to an end? America and China have been making a show this week of having settled at least some of their differences as they inch towards signing ‘phase one’ of a new trade deal. Whether this proves to be a long-term armistice or simply a truce designed for domestic audiences remains to be seen. One […]
“The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.” –Archilochus, Greek poet, 7th century BC Introduction: The present importance of hedgehogs The above quotation, popularised by Isaiah Berlin in his famous essay on Tolstoy, is a great common-sense way to divide both people and ways of thinking. Most of us (including political […]
Following last week’s assassination of Qasem Soleimani, the general of Iran’s elite Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp, the Trump administration has come in for a fair bit of criticism. For some the US can do no right, and even the assassination of a figure as despicable as Soleimani still provokes instinctive disapproval […]
As a tumultuous year draws to a close, we’re looking back at some of the most insightful interviews CapX has conducted over the last 12 months. Robert D Kaplan is widely-regarded as one of the world’s leading thinkers on foreign policy, defence and geopolitics. He is the author of 18 books, including The Revenge of Geography and […]
On Sunday, the White House announced that ‘Turkey will soon be moving forward with its long-planned operation into northern Syria’ and that American forces, though they would not support this advance, would move out of the way to allow it to take place. This announcement was unexpected and surprised many, the inhabitants of northern Syria […]
Over the Christmas week, CapX is republishing its favourite pieces from the past year. You can find the full list here. On a bright spring day in 2010, I sat on the summit of the Citadel in Aleppo, watching the crowds. It was a national holiday, and the ruined fortress that dominates the City was […]
Among all major religions, Islam is the only one founded by a trader. According to the holy Quran (dictated by God himself to this prophet), profit is good as long the wealthy merchant redistributes a modest part of his acquired wealth to the poor. No idealization of poverty can be found in Islam, which makes […]
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