If the definition of political success is when other people start claiming your ideas as their own, then this week’s speech by Richard Tice committing Reform UK to creating a UK sovereign wealth fund ought to count as a pretty big win. I first proposed the idea in a policy paper more than a decade […]
Although it is early days, it does now look as if a cyclical recovery is starting in the UK economy. The best evidence is the recovery in retail sales from its six-year post-Covid slump. Since consumer spending is around 60% of GDP, a consumer recovery is critical to getting GDP rising. The recovery is also […]
Britain’s economic debate rests on a dangerous assumption. Debt crises are things that happen elsewhere. Greece, perhaps. Argentina, certainly. But not the United Kingdom – a mature economy with its own currency, deep capital markets and centuries of institutional credibility. History offers little comfort to countries that think this way. Countries rarely enter fiscal crisis […]
Adam Smith attributed the ability of one man to do the work of many to the ‘invention of a great number of machines which facilitate and abridge labour’. Writing at the dawn of the Industrial Revolution, Smith witnessed one of the most profound reorganisations of human capital in history: the transition to mechanised production. The […]
One of the most common public policy misconceptions is that higher public spending, and higher taxes to fund that spending, results in better welfare. For years, many British politicians have looked at Scandinavian public services with envy. The assumption that if you want Scandinavian-style welfare, you need Scandinavian levels of tax, has gone largely unchallenged. […]
Keir Starmer’s child poverty taskforce is set to recommend scrapping the two-child benefit cap, increasing pressure on the Government to do it. The taskforce was established by the Prime Minister to look at how to bring down child poverty, and was initially supposed to publish its findings earlier this spring. However, the taskforce, which is […]
The Government’s screeching u-turn on reforming Personal Independence Payments has distracted attention from a more fundamental problem with Britain’s broken benefits system. Regardless of whether the right people are getting the right kinds of benefits or not, too few of them stop claiming once they’ve started. We’ve got a ‘Hotel California’ system where people check […]
Today, Kemi Badenoch said that the UK is in danger of becoming a ‘welfare state with an economy attached – 28 million people in Britain are now working to pay the wages and benefits of 20 million others’. She’s right. Changes to the system are sorely needed. In April, the OBR forecast that the cost […]
Eventually, all governments run out of steam. No leader, no matter how powerful, no matter their past achievements, can stave off the inevitable. Political scientists in America refer to the natural development of political fatigue as the ‘six year itch‘. After six years in office, the public’s growing dissatisfaction with the president, their party and their agenda, coincides with a […]
A Chancellor’s Spending Review is a chance to set out the Government’s fiscal priorities for the years ahead, and signal which political issues are most important. But there was one giant, gaping hole in the Review. No mention of welfare at all. It was barely an asterisk in the reams of documents and announcements. That is odd […]
In recent months, the Labour Government has talked tough about welfare reform, particularly in its apparent willingness to make difficult choices on disability benefits. The current system, according to the Prime Minister, could not be defended on ‘economic or moral terms’. In announcing the reform package, the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions Liz […]
Despite the political pain, Labour’s announcements on welfare come nowhere near close enough to solving the crisis of rising health-related benefits. Even after planned reforms, health-related benefits will still rise 5.3% per year throughout the 2020s, compared to the economy’s growth rate of 1.6%. Labour can be commended for correctly identifying the problem, which is […]
‘You have two choices: you can weave baskets or work on a switchboard.’ Twenty years ago, that was the choice offered to me – a partially-sighted teenager whose sight was rapidly deteriorating – by the careers adviser at my secondary school. Decades later, after carving out a successful business career, I reflect on how different […]
The fact that there are currently over nine million adults in the UK economically inactive, including over 3m people on long-term disability benefits and nearly 1m people aged 16-24 not in employment, education or training, is a national scandal. Thinkers like Fraser Nelson have done an impeccable job at highlighting the explosion in inactivity since […]
Will it end with a bang or a whimper? Will Labour persist with their socialist policies despite their ruinous impact becoming all the more evident until a big crash in the 2029 election wipes out their majority? Or will economic reality force a change of course before then? Perhaps a bit of both. If we […]
Apparently, if you make up a measure, then you can make the number of that measure dance to your tune. Who knew, eh? Hence why the Social Metrics Commission (SMC) tells us that poverty is rising: The latest estimates, by the non-partisan Social Metrics Commission, show that the number of people in poverty has risen […]
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