After three national lockdowns since the start of the pandemic, the UK is still grappling with the long-term effects of these prolonged periods of social isolation. As the country battles with record increases in cases brought about by the Omicron variant, lessons must be learnt from previous lockdowns to ensure adequate support is provided for […]
This morning is full of scary numbers for Boris Johnson. Hundreds of thousands of Omicron cases, inflation running at over 5% and last night, an epic Tory rebellion. On the weekend it was generally reckoned that about 60 Tories would vote against the Government on ‘vaccine passports’/Covid certificates (delete according to taste). As it transpired, […]
With the prime minister last night urging the British people to get boosted in preparation for a ‘tidal wave’ of Omicron infections, there is a social virus that needs to be addressed – the vilification of the unvaccinated. There have been a number of astonishingly disparaging pieces authored in recent days on this topic. Writing […]
If Boris Johnson didn’t have enough on his plate with a new baby and containing the fallout from partygate / quizgate, his own MPs are about to make his life even harder. About 60 Tories look likely to vote against ‘vaccine passports’ this week, and many seem to see it as a badge of honour. […]
The latest news about the Omicron variant is positive. Pfizer and BioNTech have concluded that a three dose vaccine regime provides roughly the same protection against the new variant that a two-dose did against Delta and earlier variants. Other laboratory studies have reached similar conclusions. The real-world evidence is good as well. A private hospital […]
If the latest rumours are correct, the UK government will soon announce new restrictions in response to the spread of the Omicron variant. Throughout the pandemic my instinct has been to give the policymakers and their advisors the benefit of the doubt. But clamping down now would make little sense. Starting with the economics, the […]
For a brief moment, it seemed Britain was finally waking up from the Covid nightmare. Cases were soaring across Europe, while the ‘dangerous and unethical experiment‘ undertaken here was beginning to look like a masterstroke. Restaurants were gearing up to the busiest time of year. Friends were planning festive gatherings. Businesses had booked their Christmas […]
Some countries, such as the US and Israel, are now offering COVID vaccines to all children aged five and over. It’s a sign of how well vaccine rollout has gone in these places, but also that the pandemic is still raging on. Governments are going further and further to try to stay on top of […]
Until the Omicron variant hit the headlines, the signs were that 2021 was going to close with a stellar stock-market performance. Most markets have been on the rise since the beginning of the year, with the S&P500 up about 25% and the FTSE All Share index up by about 10%. There had certainly been some […]
A terrible disease is stalking Britain. No, not that one, but what some call ‘Treasury Brain’ – an inability to see any benefits from assets on the government balance sheet, while being petrified of any ‘wasteful’ spending. The patient becomes obsessed with the national debt, but blind to growing the economy to help deal with […]
Here are some first thoughts on ‘Omicronomics’, or the economic impact of the new Covid restrictions announced for England over the weekend. The main short-term risk to the UK economy comes from the tightening of the self-isolation rules: contacts of those testing positive for the Omicron variant will have to stay at home for up […]
Faced with a wave of Covid-19 cases, EU countries are reintroducing significant restrictions. Belgium has made working-from-home compulsory four days per week. Austria has imposed a lockdown on the unvaccinated and looks set for a full one in certain areas of the country. The Netherlands has forced early closure of shops and restaurants and even banned […]
State spending is the highest it’s been since the 1970s. The tax burden is the highest it’s been since the 1950s. Government debt is at record heights too – twice as high as 20 years ago as a percentage of GDP, and seven times as high in cash terms – over £2 trillion, or around […]
In these days when conspiracy theories are rampant and misinformation about Covid-19 rife, it would help if senior officials didn’t blatantly lie to the public. It would also be nice if the media didn’t uncritically report claims that are obviously untrue. This morning, various news outlets reported comments from the head of NHS England, Amanda […]
Picture a world in which Covid killed children and pregnant women. Questions about schools, social distancing and personal responsibility would be framed completely differently, and the cost/benefit calculations radically altered. It’s difficult to imagine a slogan as drily institutional as ‘protect the NHS’ if thousands of babies were dying. We’re now getting a harrowing glimpse […]
From the start of the pandemic, one thing that Boris Johnson seemed to grasp was the importance of simple, unified messaging to bring people along on key public health measures. Yet today’s announcement that it is going to green-light vaccinations for school-aged children strays a long way from that principle. England’s Chief Medical Officer, Chris […]
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