The combination of Theresa May’s surprise Phase One Brexit deal, and a subsequent poll by YouGov putting the Conservatives one percentage point ahead of Labour on 42 per cent, suggest the tantalising prospect that Jeremy Corbyn’s popularity has peaked. A reasonably competent Budget, so the narrative goes, the fact that Brexit is stumbling on, and […]
I know these are unfashionable things to say, but the British economy is in much ruder health than many commentators admit, and we all owe a debt of thanks to George Osborne. The excellent public sector finance figures published today are a dramatic demonstration of these truths. What a pleasant surprise for the chancellor Philip […]
We cannot take the suspense. Philip Hammond labours like Caractacus Potts in the Treasury shed. Creak, bang, curse, he tinkers away into the night, preparing to unveil his latest Budget contraption next Wednesday. There is a sense of foreboding too. Will it fly beautifully, like Chitty Chitty Bang Bang? Or send him careering dangerously around […]
Given the economics profession’s delight in gloom, sifting out the good news from that which is actually bad requires constant vigilance. This week’s publication of average earnings data is a classic example. The Office for National Statistics said that average earnings grew at an annual rate of 2.2 per cent in August, below inflation. In […]
One of the great historical biographies is of the French statesman Talleyrand, by Duff Cooper. It used to be compulsory reading for smart political thinkers, reflecting, from the safety of the sun lounger, on adapting their philosophy to reality. Charles-Maurice, Prince de Talleyrand was a wily cove, serving five different regimes from the French Revolution […]
I agree with Allister Heath that the Conservative manifesto is much better than expected, given all the worrying “Red Tory”, anti-business spin which has been coming out of the party’s election campaign. The actual words in the manifesto are vaguer than was originally indicated. The energy price cap on variable tariffs, falsely advertised last week […]
Forecasts of a landslide victory for Theresa May abounded at the weekend, with one poll, by ComRes, even putting the Conservatives on 50 per cent, the highest since 1992. But at this point, such expectations need reining in and we should be sceptical of a May landslide. By landslide I mean a Thatcher or Blair […]
Blah, that is all one can say about the Budget. I have been excitedly scribbling about and analysing Budgets for 20 years and for the first time I can find nothing meaningful to say about one. There was very little in it of consequence. Nothing much to excite or to make you indignant. I am […]
In his CapX weekly briefing two weeks ago, Robert Colvile commented on the “remarkable stability of Brexit Britain”. He highlighted the Prime Minister Theresa May’s big poll lead over Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and concluded that “the May supremacy looks like a welcome source of relief”, given the uncertainties elsewhere in the world. Since then, Mrs […]
Of all the outlandish claims during the EU referendum last year, it is fair to say nobody claimed that there would be a boom in the City and the stock market would take off in the event of a Leave vote. Yet that does appear to be happening. The FTSE 100 touched a record of […]
Who would have thought it? Theresa May flies into Washington on Friday as the first foreign leader to meet Donald Trump after his inauguration and – despite the loss in the Supreme Court this week – she does so with her confidence and stature rising by the day. She is also becoming more sure footed in […]
Rex Tillerson’s official nomination by Donald Trump to be the next secretary of state has led to predictable outcry about having the former Exxon CEO in the White House. But most of this commentary is as malodorously confused as smoke emitted by a Texan oil refinery. Just about the only person who hasn’t expressed an […]
I live right on the border of Richmond Park, the constituency where Zac Goldsmith (former Tory) just lost a by-election to Sarah Olney of the Lib Dems; I also spent the least four years promoting an independent plan for Heathrow (which Zac indicated he could possibly accept) so, I guessed this might happen. It’s important […]
Philip Hammond will give his first Autumn Statement on Wednesday and the press has already mentally written the headlines: “Jam tomorrow!”. JAMs are the latest Whitehall acronym, standing for those “just about managing” – whom, we are told, Theresa May has ordered him to help. While doing something for those who work hard, play by the […]
It is four years ago since I first tipped up at the Centre for Policy Studies with what seemed like a brilliant idea. I had been introduced to the longest-serving Concorde pilot, Jock Lowe, and he had a scheme for expanding Heathrow for the least cost and bother. Jock’s idea was simply to extend the […]
Somebody had to dilute the intoxicating cocktail of Brexit triumphalism being served up at the Conservative Party conference, and the new chancellor Philip Hammond was the man. Never the most dazzling of orators, he nonetheless managed to fill the hall of the International Conference Centre in Birmingham, so the audience had to spill over to […]
The House of Commons is an ancient body and there is something Medieval about the transfer of political power in Britain. Yesterday was a case in point. As Shakespeare’s Richard II put it (himself deposed): “Come, let us sit upon the ground and tell sad tales of the death of Kings.” David Cameron is out, […]
Goodness. Like most people in the UK, I spent the weekend glancing at social media or the TV, talking to friends and relatives, and one thing was clear: the entire country was in a total post-referendum stew. I live in Wandsworth in London which voted 70% Remain and there was a sort of inquisition as […]
Political risk and the UK is misunderstood. Judging by the betting markets Brexit is unlikely, but post-referendum chaos, including a vote of no confidence in David Cameron, is a growing possibility. The Telegraph reports this morning that about 100 eurosceptic Tory MPs are so angry at the way the referendum is being conducted by Downing […]
Political risk is now the new climate change, a catch-all narrative for the future which enables the bourgeoisie to enjoy one of our favourite pastimes: showing off by scaring everybody at dinner parties. We all use the key words with abandon: “migration; nutters; Trump; Brexit: twitter; Boris; Corbyn; Putin; hollowed out middle class; etc.” How […]
