We’ve hit the reality of inadequate action and the lockdown is upon us.
Rather than dwelling on the awfulness of it all, let’s ask what we could be doing better.
Testing, the Prime Minister tells us, is central to the coming effort. We are about to embark on tests galore – the “moonshot” we’ve all heard so much about. This is all very exciting, except that the UK actually already does more tests per head than all substantial countries, yet our death rates are amongst the worst in the developed world. Germany has done roughly half the tests per head the UK has and yet their death rate is one fifth of ours.
The thing is, tests alone do not do very much unless there is careful and fast follow-up with isolation of both the infected and the exposed that is rigorously followed up. The UK’s test-and-trace system, so boldly flattered by the PM, has been notably poor.
Only about 80% of people testing positive are being contacted. And given that tests take a couple of days or longer to come through, probably only half of positive testing individuals are usefully followed up. That means only just over 1 contact per positive test is found and advised to isolate. Nor is there any data on the actual adherence to isolation for either positively testing individuals or their traced contacts. This is, quite simply, appalling.
Here are some sensible testing policies that might improve matters:
– Insist on full contact data from people being tested.
– Make it an offence not to isolate when identified.
– Spot check isolation, and pay for isolation as we would for statutory sick pay.
– Speed up testing
Self-evidently better management is needed, so it’s good to see that the Army has been enlisted to help with logistics. We should examine where else their expertise might be useful.
The upshot of all this is that if test-and-trace is not sorted out – and properly – the so-called “moonshot” will turnout to have been an expensive lunacy.
The blanket nature of these restrictions is troubling. The whole population is now being locked down, but we know most of the serious damage is in the over-60s and the already infirm, and 90% of deaths arise in those groups. Given the horrible conflict between the disease and the economy, surely it is worth at least considering just locking down those groups, especially as their situation would be the same in a full or partial lockdown anyway.
Finally, we can do more to speed up the routes to vaccines and treatments. The use of volunteers to act as guinea pigs in “challenge” tests where they are deliberately infected to speed up finding out the effectiveness of the interventions is one way to do this. We are told this will start on a limited scale in January next year. Why not more and faster? The risks and benefits are both obvious, but as finding a good drug one day earlier saves 300 plus lives, the weighting of the scales seem pretty evident.
None of the above is very clever, it just needs doing.
Click here to subscribe to our daily briefing – the best pieces from CapX and across the web.
CapX depends on the generosity of its readers. If you value what we do, please consider making a donation.
