The last time I wrote about Reform UK’s annual conference I was doing it as the Deputy Editor of this fine publication. A year on, how much has changed? Greeting you as you enter the conference hall is the familiar fare for the familiar fee. Chicken and chips stands sit next to anti-Labour propaganda, accompanied […]
The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy is not a publication most would be familiar with. It is meant as a repository of overviews of big topics in philosophy broadly defined, inclusive of political theory. As such, entries added to it are unlikely to generate strong responses by the experts deeply familiar with each individual entry. Every […]
The ‘moron premium’ is back with a vengeance this week, with 10-year gilt yields approaching 5.30%, their highest since 2007, while the 30-year is again threatening 6%. Pantheon Macroeconomics estimates that higher borrowing costs have cut the Chancellor’s fiscal headroom from £23.6 billion to around £13 billion. Meaning almost £11bn has disappeared before the Budget […]
When Andy Burnham arrived at No 10 in July he came with a bold message of change. 40 years of neoliberalism have left Britain hollowed out: wealth has drained from those with the least to those with the most; capital ran riot while the state stood back and watched. It’s a powerful story, and evidently […]
Alan Greenspan was always attacked by the Left because of his belief in market forces. John Kenneth Galbraith, at a White House conference, made fun of him, saying that the cure for inflation is always the same for ‘Bolsheviks and the devoted supporters of Ayn Rand’. But each and every government learns the hard way […]
This week, consultation closed on the Government’s proposals to place further restrictions on the use of zero-hour contracts. Labour’s intention was signalled in last year’s Employment Rights Act, which obliges employers to offer a guaranteed-hours contract based on the average hours worked in a ‘reference period’, to give workers ‘reasonable notice’ of shifts, and to […]
This morning the Guardian reported ‘Number of young people in UK not in work or education falls below 1 million’. Technically yes. The ONS released new statistics today which show that the number of people aged 16 to 24 not in employment, education or training (NEET) is down 30,000. Unfortunately, it is not cause for […]
The Prime Minister has announced that economic policymaking will be led by No 10 North. Does this mean that the so-called ‘dead hand’ of the Treasury will no longer be able to frustrate worthwhile projects which will boost the UK economy? Or does it run the risk of expenditure and borrowing getting out of control […]
Few people enjoy gazing into the crystal ball more than economists. Attempting to divine the future, otherwise known as forecasting, is a numerically intensive pastime of many people in the profession. It is also a common mandate of many state institutions. For instance, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) produces aggregate forecasts of government receipts, […]
This weekend the Telegraph ran a story with the striking headline ‘Burnham told to trade nuclear umbrella for access to single market’. The idea is the brainchild of Nick Boles, the former Conservative MP who quit the party in 2019 over Brexit, switched his allegiance to Labour and helped to advise Keir Starmer on the […]
An index-linked gilt – known as a linker in City speak – is a government IOU whose principal and interest payments rise with the Retail Prices Index (RPI). Inflation erodes the value of an ordinary bond; a linker compensates the holder for it. The post-Covid inflation shock showed why anybody would want one. Inflation, thought […]
When Waitrose suspended mackerel sales over fears of overfishing, it was a warning. Weeks later, M&S followed suit. And as stocks continue to plunge, retail giants like Sainsbury’s and Morrisons sit poised to take similar action. The crisis in our seas has finally hit the supermarket shelves, but in reality, it runs far deeper. Today, […]
The Government is consulting on a requirement for the provision of pay details in job advertisements. This is part of a wider consultation being run by the Office for Equality and Opportunity (OEO) on equal pay and pay discrimination. The remorseless expansion of the scope of equality legislation never slows, driven as it is by […]
Britain’s spending and tax choices now fall to John Healey. My expectation? Higher spending, higher taxes and meaningless tweaks to welfare reform. Tuesday’s decision to cut VAT from domestic electricity bills could save the average household around £45 a year. Fine as far as it goes. But it will do nothing to boost productivity, stimulate […]
Yesterday morning, John Healey woke up for the first time as our country’s Chancellor. A dream come true perhaps – but the legacy he’s received from his predecessor is more the stuff of nightmares. The first figures out that day were the latest ONS stats on employment. Not a rosy picture. They show 160,000 fewer […]
In his first full day as Prime Minister, Andy Burnham has announced that VAT on household energy bills will be removed from October. While no doubt well intentioned, this would be a mistake. First, it is risky for the public finances. VAT on energy bills brings in a significant amount of revenue. The Government has […]
‘I’m personally convinced that our civilisation is approaching its end,’ wrote the British journalist Malcolm Muggeridge in 1980. ‘I think of St Augustine when, in AD 410, the news was brought to him in Carthage that Rome had been sacked by the Barbarians.’ Jim Callaghan was equally gloomy. In 1974, he remarked: ‘When I am […]
Below is a speech incoming Prime Minister Andy Burnham could give – one that would unite the country around a shared vision of prosperity. Prosperity for All My fellow citizens, Today, as I stand before you as your Prime Minister, I want to cut through the political noise and give you the unvarnished truth about […]
In Gordium, the capital of Phrygia, stood an oxcart, its yoke connected to the pole by a knot of cornel bark so intricate that no one could find where it began or ended. An oracle promised that whoever undid it would rule all Asia. For generations, clever men picked at it, theorised, and organised what […]
The Great Depression was bad, but how bad was it exactly? In its early days, people spent a lot of time arguing over specific metrics like steel output or share prices, but the US Congress wanted a way to quantify how bad things were for the economy as a whole. In 1932, Congress commissioned Simon […]
The OBR’s latest Fiscal Risks and Sustainability report, published this week, gives a blunt assessment of the UK’s public finances: we can’t go on like this. If nothing changes, government debt will rise to an unsustainable 300% of GDP in 50 years’ time. How did things get so bad? Well, there’s one big demographic challenge […]
Here it comes again. Whoever Andy Burnham chooses to be his Chancellor of the Exchequer will face the same challenge as all their predecessors since Gordon Brown: producing ‘fiscal rules’ to reassure the City they will be prudent holders of the nation’s credit card. With Britain’s national debt higher than it’s been for decades, and […]
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