Polling shows general elections are nearly always decided months, sometimes weeks, before they take place. Why? Because although first impressions count, and most voters do form a clear view on the personalities involved in elections much earlier, your average voter isn’t the faintest bit interested in an opposition party’s tax or immigration policy when they are – quite literally – years away from a shot at government. That’s not to say where you stand on these issues doesn’t matter at all. But policy detail? At best, most voters aren’t listening. At worst, they just hear easy answers to complex questions and promises that will inevitably be broken. And who can blame them? People have better things to do.
Besides, even if this weren’t the case, how could you possibly formulate policies today to deal with the opportunities and challenges of tomorrow, when the landscape is constantly shifting and evolving, as the last ten years have shown? Of course, this hasn’t stopped the many calls for Kemi Badenoch to ignore this fundamental truth, and start teasing a manifesto that isn’t even a glint in the author’s eye. So far, Kemi has stuck to her guns. And in my view, she should continue to do so.
Interestingly, I find these calls very reminiscent of pressure Keir Starmer faced from his internal and external critics when he first became leader of a Labour Party at rock bottom. And although some may not like to hear it, there are lessons to be learnt from his approach to life in opposition, even if he is proving to be a woeful Prime Minister. When Keir Starmer became Labour leader, he and those around him realised two things. Firstly, that voters no longer had any idea what the party stood for, and secondly, that Labour first had to get its own house in order before turning to face the country. The first problem was in part a result of the policy overload of the Corbyn era and the second a question of credibility – a prerequisite to any policy detail.
This meant that for the first three years of his five years leading the Labour Party in opposition, with one or two exceptions, Starmer hardly uttered a single policy, instead focusing on ‘values’; the why before the what. Of course, there is a strong argument to say that Starmer never did and never has successfully articulated what he stands for, not for lack of trying. But Starmer’s clear shortcomings as a communicator doesn’t make this underlying approach wrong. And, crucially, he still managed to win a substantial majority. Far closer to home, it should also be noted that when she became Conservative Party leader, Margaret Thatcher avoided getting into policy for as long as she could, which did her little harm in the long run.
But even more importantly, we must remember that no party or leader has a divine right to the attention of the electorate, especially when it has so recently delivered such an unfavourable verdict, as is the case for the Conservative Party.
The electorate’s attention must be earned, not by reeling off policies when the going gets tough, but through grit, patience and hard work. This starts with a degree of humility, first recognising where you went wrong and then demonstrating change. Kemi is doing just that, by focusing on the issues that matter to voters and holding this disastrous Labour Government to account. This is the only way to rebuild trust. And the Conservative Party should not mistake the overwhelming disappointment with Labour for any indication that the electorate has fundamentally changed its view of the Tories since the 2024 general election.
But what about Nigel Farage and Reform UK? While they lack a fully worked-out platform, strategic considerations haven’t stopped them peddling certain policies. It’s easy to see why some want the Tory party to try and out Reform Reform. But this is not a sustainable strategy for an aspiring party of government.
Despite their relative surge, Reform UK still remain a party of protest, with little or no chance of entering government: due to the rules of our electoral system, if nothing else. Farage can say what he likes, when he likes. He always has, and most voters will be pricing this in. Besides, I don’t believe most of those who say they plan to vote Reform could name more than two or three of their policies, at most. And this isn’t a criticism of these voters – why should they? For the reasons discussed above, such an assessment this far out from a general election is utterly meaningless.
That’s not to suggest Reform should be ignored, but you do not win elections by playing to your opponents’ strengths; you do so by playing to your own and winning the argument, no matter how long it takes or how hard it is.
In the case of the Tory party, this means acknowledging where we went wrong and demonstrating change – principally, a return to conservative values. Only once we have won a hearing with the electorate can we then finally set out a clear and compelling policy platform.
It’s clear Kemi Badenoch understands this, and under her leadership I have no doubt that she will steer the party to victory. That victory must be a Conservative triumph, not a Labour loss.
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