In a twist few would have expected in recent years, Labour are attempting to position themselves as the party to successfully control migration. Today, the Prime Minister launched his white paper on the topic, promising to ‘take back control of our borders’ and warning that the UK risks becoming an ‘island of strangers’. Labour’s turn on this issue is unsurprising. Having been let down by the Conservatives’ inability to control inward migration and Labour’s historic ambivalence to the issue, many voters are looking to upstarts like Reform UK for solutions. So, Labour have read the room, but are their plans as impressive as their rhetoric?

In terms of overall numbers, implicitly it seems pretty clear that Labour are aiming for net migration of 200,000-300,000 per annum, as per the 2010s. While this would be a two-thirds reduction on recent highs, this is still extraordinarily high by historical standards. In a report for the Centre for Policy Studies, co-authored by myself, Robert Jenrick and Neil O’Brien, we pointed out that, despite being told incessantly by the left-wing commentariat that Britain is a country ‘built by migrants’, the numbers suggest otherwise. For most of the last century, net migration as a proportion of UK population was negligible, only beginning to rise considerably in the 1990s. Historically, in fact, Britain was a country defined by net emigration.

It is welcome, however, that Labour are taking on the received wisdom that brought us to this point. For years, the dominant view among decision makers has been that increased migration is somehow a silver bullet for Britain’s economic woes. As highlighted in Labour’s white paper, the opposite has come to pass. While migration has soared, growth and living standards have stagnated, and the labour market has become distorted. In addition, the housing market has been put under immense strain as housebuilding has lagged behind population growth. These arguments are not new, and have been made repeatedly in this outlet and others. However, it is certainly no bad thing that they are now being officially endorsed by the state.

After this, the white paper goes into detail on one of the great hurdles to addressing our migration crisis: the ‘data desert’. When it comes to working out exactly how many people are in the country, what countries they came from and their long-term fiscal and economic impact, we have been at a loss. There are a number of issues plaguing the accuracy of the figures we have available. This was a key theme in our paper last year, and the Government’s white paper echoes our point that this problem is nothing new:

Data gathered on migration flows has historically been inadequate, and modelling emigration has always been challenging. But the complex structural and dynamic changes in underlying trends in migration in recent years – including the sudden pace of those changes – has contributed to the number of inaccuracies and revisions both in the measurement and forecasting of net migration, and that has undoubtedly undermined confidence in the system and made it harder to determine appropriate policy responses. 

Yet, disappointingly, little beyond continuing to work closely with existing statistical agencies is proposed to correct this.

Further down, the document goes into detail about how our immigration system was liberalised for low-skilled migrants, by removing the RQF 6 (graduate-level skills) specification from worker visas. Tackling this is vital, and it is likely that reversing this is where much of Labour’s 50,000 reduction in visas will come from. Yet as with so much of the white paper, the devil is in the detail. Linking immigration policy to skills is, in theory, a good step towards building an economy that no longer prioritises mass migration over home-grown talent. Yet the Government’s plans to outsource the responsibility for creating this to a new consortium of quangos is a cop out. This will likely give ministers another way to escape accountability if targets are not met.

Later on comes the proposal to rebrand the Shortage Occupation List as a ‘Temporary Shortage List’. This is unconvincing, and I doubt big employers in particular will have trouble drawing up a ‘workforce strategy’ to meet new compliance requirements.

It is, however, great news that the disastrous social care visa is being ended. But until 2028, those already here will be able to switch or extend their visa, and there is no update on dependents joining workers already here – an ongoing leak in the system. It should be noted that care homes are already up in arms about this, but the workforce gap could be plugged with about £1 billion – a fraction of what we’re spending on the small boats and asylum hotels – again, as we pointed out last year.

Refugee programmes will be expanded by allowing UN-recognised refugees – 123,000,000 people, including most of Gaza – to apply for jobs in the UK. Migrants will be drawn from ‘a limited pool’ – but we have no idea what the criteria are or what the cap will be (if there is to be a cap at all).

The numbers on the Global Talent and similar work visa routes will also be increased. This has the potential to benefit us. Our immigration system has been unselective for too long, and this could attract more of the sort of high-skilled migrants we want. But will this be offset with cuts elsewhere, or does this cancel out some of the reduction from ending social care visas?

One of the most egregious failures of our immigration system has been the rise of the ‘Deliveroo visa’ – students using low quality master’s degrees as a backdoor to employment and settlement. The Government has completed ceded the argument on this, admitting that ‘too many graduates allowed to stay in the UK following the successful completion of their studies are not moving into the graduate level roles for which the Graduate visa route was created.’ But Labour are merely tinkering around the edges by cutting the Graduate route from 24 months to 18 months. This is not going to dent international student numbers.

Similarly, the Government has recognised the growing problem of family visas. Paragraph 145 of the white paper notes that just 44% of those who have arrived on family visas are in employment, with an average salary of just £27,200. However, plans for reform of the family route are being kicked down the road to the end of the year.

Meanwhile, paragraphs 181-196 make all the right noises on border control and immigration enforcement, but with very limited concrete steps. Beyond the rollout of digital ID cards – a policy Labour have championed ad nauseum – there is little evidence that Labour are going to get a grip on asylum applications.

When it comes to the challenges of integration and cohesion, there are a lot of platitudes and blobspeak. While there is some promising substance on strengthening English language requirements, the paper doesn’t address the problems with fraud at foreign test centres. Language skills are another major economic and social issue we highlighted in our report last year. In 2021, although they represented just 2.1% of the working age population, those with poor or no English language skills accounted for 3.8% of the economically inactive.

The later section on Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR) is a shambles. The qualification for ILR will be extended to 10 years of residency, but loopholes via family visas and a points-based system remain, and there is no indication of when the period will be extended to 10 years. Presumably after the consultation promised for later this year.

In summary, as with Keir Starmer’s speech today, the need to reduce immigration conceded both on specifics like economic growth and housing, and on general principle. However, the policies do not match the rhetoric. We’ve had 30 years of broken promises on immigration, and regrettably, there is no sign of change to be found here.