When the Prime Minister stood at his lectern outside UK Permanent Joint Headquarters at Northwood to announce his mind-boggling Chagos giveaway last week, he adduced one point into his argument with even more studied earnestness than usual.
In an increasingly dangerous world, Starmer claimed, ‘Russia, China, Iran’ opposed the agreement – and therefore his deal to surrender sovereignty over Chagos must be on the right side in international affairs.
He claimed:
It is worth reminding ourselves who is in favour of this treaty, this deal, and who’s against it. In favour are all of our allies: the US, Nato, Five Eyes, India. Against it: Russia, China, Iran and, surprisingly, the leader of the opposition and Nigel Farage are in that column alongside Russia, China and Iran, rather than the column that has the UK and its allies in it.
In doing so, Starmer sought to silence his critics, attempting to paint the Conservatives and Reform as somehow supportive of the intentions of hostile states.
It took less than a week for this nonsense to be blown out of the water. With all the power of a missile fired from one of the gunboats the UK parks in the perfect harbour at Diego Garcia, the Prime Minister’s claim has been humiliatingly and very publicly demolished.
Over the past few days, prominent Mauritian newspaper Le Mauricien reported Chinese diplomats making a visit to Port Louis in order to welcome Starmer’s deal – which they described as an ‘historical achievement’ and offered their ‘massive congratulations’.
The report claimed that the Chinese Ambassador supported Mauritius ‘protecting its territorial integrity’. The delegation apparently ‘assured’ Mauritius that China is ‘always a trustworthy friend’ to them and confirmed they would be joining China’s Belt and Road initiative.
If this came as a genuine surprise to Starmer, then he is a fool without even the most basic knowledge and instincts for high stakes diplomacy.
If he already knew this was a likely outcome – as his officials would no doubt have ensured he did – then his speech cannot be seen as anything other than deeply dishonest.
The confirmation of Beijing’s support for the deal came after the Russian government agreed to build on a ‘longstanding partnership’ and deepen collaboration on ‘marine research’ and fisheries with Mauritius earlier this month. This was well known before Starmer signed the paperwork.
Moscow has long been involved with training Mauritius in these techniques. Perhaps unsurprisingly, ‘marine research’ is a euphemism – it entails ostensibly scientific activities that are in fact the perfect cover for undersea espionage.
To complete this unholy trinity, Iran and Mauritius also signed an agreement this year for greater research collaboration. Again, this was all clear in the public domain.
In other words, the central claim Starmer made in defence of his deal – while standing outside the UK’s national defence nerve centre – was patently and obviously false.
The Chagos Islands are a key strategic location in the Indian Ocean – one of the most contested naval theatres on earth – and by way of his deal, Starmer has now opened the door to Russian and other vessels operating in the waters around Chagos.
The deal materially reduces the exclusion zone around the archipelago and also transfers responsibility for marine policing and fishing controls to Mauritius.
At a time when allies are beefing up their defences, this Labour Government is letting the most hostile states on earth walk all over us – and forcing the taxpayer to cough up for the privilege.
Starmer suffers from a mix of simple naivety and strategic or diplomatic incompetence – not unexpected from a politician whose background is more rooted in the domestic arena.
But he also believes Britain must endlessly atone for the genuine wrongs of the past – but in so doing, executes policy that makes no strategic sense today.
It is still not completely clear exactly which departmental budget will fund this deal – and ministers are desperately trying to conceal the true cost with Treasury technicalities about accounting for ‘long-term projects’.
The truth is it is probably going to be largely funded through the defence budget – a prospect which the Secretary of State for Defence has not denied.
The annual average cost will be around £100 million. That is enough to hire over 3,800 new soldiers into the British Army each year.
Or this money would be better used to upgrade the shoddy service accommodation our service men and women have been putting up with for too long.
With the total net cost of £30.3 billion, we could invest in six more aircraft carriers. With that, the UK could afford to keep one in the Indian Ocean, within range of the South China Sea, on a constant basis – something almost unthinkable in the current funding settlement.
Unfortunately for Starmer, his disastrous mishandling of this negotiation will send dangerous signals to hostile actors.
I have nothing against the people of countries such as China, Russia and Iran – but their governments are engaged in a long term campaign to oppose and attack UK interests.
They often seek to manipulate well-meaning politicians in weaker countries such as Mauritius, saddled by debt and in want of investment.
Starmer’s willingness to follow through with this disastrous deal is doing that job for them.
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