One of the great difficulties of being a moderately well-known financial strategist is resisting the urge to climb to the top of the City’s tallest building each morning and indulge in a bout of frustrated primal screaming. Yesterday was one such morning. Yesterday, CapX asked me if I could contribute a few thoughts on whether […]
As a Scot who loves his country, I feel it’s my patriotic duty to raise some of the many issues around Humza Yousaf’s pledge to go directly to the bond market to borrow up to £3bn. As a Fixed Income Investment specialist, I am unlikely to recommend the current proposed bond to my clients, as […]
The City of London’s crown as the centre of global finance sits uneasily. The failure of the WE Soda float confirms London has slipped down the global IPO league tables. and remains top-heavy with predictable, low-risk, beta-generating businesses. Multiple mistakes have diminished London’s lustre: Brexit, the size and structure of the economy, UK politics, the […]
Last week the Energy Secretary released a new strategy, pithily entitled ‘Powering Up Britain’. Grant Shapps was forced to produce this document because of the dogged efforts of Friends of the Earth. The environmentalists persuaded the courts that the Government’s Net Zero strategy contained legally binding targets, so ministers had until the end of March […]
It is becoming increasingly clear we nearly had another Lehman moment. ‘Regulators and central banks starred at the abyss and decided they did not want to go there,’ one source close to the events told me. Credit Suisse really was on the verge of failing as potential losses on its bond portfolio would have sent its […]
‘The only reliable way to catch a train is to miss the one before…’ I have worked in finance for nearly 40 years. I have withstood psychotic managers, overcome multiple business hurdles, survived a major health scare and triumphed as a small firm guy against big vested interests. But despite all those trials and tribulations, […]
This was a disappointing week for the embryonic British space industry when the first ever launch from the UK ended up with a big splash somewhere in the Atlantic. Virgin Orbit dropped a wing-carried rocket from its repurposed Jumbo Jet ‘Cosmic Girl’, but something went wrong. Millions of pounds worth of satellites tumbled into the […]
Compare and contrast two very different economies. One is a free market economy struggling with chaotic politics triggering market instability, price volatility and rising uncertainty. The other has, arguably, the most stable politics on the planet but is also seeing its markets tumble and currency fall as government decisions panic investors. Both illustrate the critical […]
London this week has been extraordinary, as hundreds of thousands queue for hours on end to pay their respects to the late Queen. Affection for Her Majesty and hope for King Charles have given the whole nation a sense of quiet dignity that has been lacking over the turbulent years of Cameron’s confabulations, May’s mayhem, […]
Welcome to the age of divergence! A new long-term trend is upon us. Buy Dollars, Sell Europe. Unfortunately, it’s likely to play into Putin’s hands in Ukraine. Hurts to say it, but Europe is going to struggle most with what’s coming next. It’s got limited choices between galloping inflation, economic misery, and political instability. Being […]
Britain’s biggest bank is facing calls to sack an executive for attacking climate change ‘nut jobs’ during a speech at a Financial Times conference last week. Stuart Kirk, ‘global head of responsible investing’ at HSBC, has already been suspended for daring to suggest the whole ESG (Environment, Social and Governance) debate has become a tad over-emotional and vulnerable […]
Like many concepts created with good intentions, the Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) label is causing as many problems as it solves. Across the world’s investment desks, fund managers struggle to comprehend International Sustainability Standards, fill in IFSR Climate-related Disclosures, EFRAG Climate Standard reporting, and other stuff that induces narcolepsy. Occasionally, if they are lucky, […]
Ukraine provided has given Europe a wake-up shock. Until March this year, it was too easy to forget that power and energy drove industrial revolutions and propelled Europe into the modern age. Without energy security, most of us would remain subsistence peasant farmers living to the ripe old age of 36 before dying in excruciating […]
The US has banned Russian oil and gas, which it doesn’t need, while Europe – which very much needs both – only plans to phase it out. This offers a neat illustration of how battle lines are being drawn in the West. Between the ‘doves’ who favour an early negotiated peace in Ukraine and the […]
As Ofgem announces an 54% rise in the energy price cap, many Brits will be nervously contemplating about what it means for their household finances. But the energy crisis also has bigger, global consequences that touch on everything from climate change to inflation, to the rules-based world order. The current gas price spike highlights just […]
You could deliver a five-act Shakespearean Tragedy in iambic pentameter about Elizabeth Holmes and the web of deceit that was Theranos. A good tragedy requires the protagonist to willingly make the choices leading to their destruction. The environment that offered Holmes the opportunity to destroy herself is critical to the plot: A market running away […]
We all want to get rich. I have a standing order to the lottery, occasionally bet on the Grand National, stay away from poker games, and have £200 invested in a random selection of cryptos on Coinbase to see what happens. Statistics and probability dictate none of these things will make me rich, but we […]
For many months myself and many of the investors I work with have become increasingly concerned at the growing instability and insecurity of energy markets. The four-times spike in gas prices this year has been a shocking wake-up call, highlighting energy insecurity in Europe, and particularly the UK. Gas prices will remain elevated for months […]
Germans are very good Europeans. Germany has toed the ECB line on ‘whatever-it-takes’ pandemic response policies, but whether that continues is not a given if the structure of German politics changes post-Merkel. Consider what happened in the UK. For many decades our politics were stable with Thatcher, Major, Blair, and Brown. Then, look at how […]
‘Environmental, Social, and Governance’ (ESG) is a marvellous concept, appallingly executed. The fundamental problem with ESG is how markets actually operate. Even after decades in finance, I’m still amazed at just how inefficient markets can be, how distortions are often ignored, groupthink dominates strategies, and sheer laziness leads to all kinds of tomfoolery. Markets are […]
