Confusion is worse confounded. As far as I can tell, no one foresaw the fall of Bashar al-Assad. So it is hardly surprising that no one has any clear idea what will happen next.

Some 20 years ago, I spent a bit of time in Syria in the days of Hafeez al-Assad. The country seemed stable, as one might expect in a well-run police state, and tourists had little to fear.

I remember one story. Driving through Damascus, a little guy in a beaten-up old Trabant was almost forced off the road by an enormous Cadillac. He leaned across and rapped his knuckle on one of the smoky windows. To his surprise, it came down a bit and a piece of paper fluttered out. He stopped to pick it up: a phone number.

The next day, the little guy went to a call box and dialled the number. A deep and sinister voice answered: ‘yes?’ Little guy: ‘Are you anything to do with that enormous car which almost shoved me off the road yesterday?’ Sinister voice: ‘Do you who you’re talking to?’ Little guy: ‘No.’ Sinister voice: ‘Hafeez al-Assad.’ Little guy: ‘Do you know who you’re talking to?’ Assad, sounding surprised: ‘No’. Little guy: ‘Thank God for that’ – and takes to his heels.

In those days, there was a Syrian commercial elite: men and families who looked as if they were used to soft living and were by no means uncorrupt. They probably resembled French Mediterranean politicians from the Fourth Republic. They wanted life to be comfortable. If the price of that was staying out of politics, so be it.

Then everything went wrong. The Arab Spring reached Syria, and the Assad regime was ready to crumble. In the short-term and at the cost of thousands of casualties, it was saved by Barack Obama and Ed Miliband. As for the ‘red line’ Obama drew on Assad’s use of chemical weapons: the only red came from the blood of Syrian civilians. Miliband could not have behaved worse if he had been acting as lickspittle to Jermy Corbyn.

Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin was watching. He saw this and the humiliating scuttle from Afghanistan and drew in the smell of Western impotence. If Putin had persuaded himself that he could do what he liked in Ukraine – could anyone blame him? Weakness is infectious.

Might the subtle sophisticates who prospered under the Assads now assist Syria to recover? There are obvious problems. Many able Syrians have fled abroad. Would they be ready to return? Refugee camps are not comfortable places. But what will life be like under Syria’s new masters?

Equally, there were lots of sophisticates around in Tehran when the Shah lost power. Could anyone guarantee that Syria will not now fall victim to fundamentalists? The answer is surely ‘no’.

We can hope. The Syrians have one advantage: bloodletting leading to exhaustion. Millions of Syrians will now be praying for a better life.

But as the Christmas season reminds us, the birth of Jesus was rapidly followed by the Massacre of the Innocents. For millennia, slaughter has been an all-too regular occurrence in this benighted region. There is no reason to believe that this will end any time soon.

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