Opinion poll results often produce a sugar rush of media excitement, usually to be swiftly forgotten. But perhaps of greater significance is gauging the medium- to long-term trend of opinion when a pollster asks the same question over a period of months or even years. YouGov has been doing this over public attitudes to taxation and public spending. A year ago, 31% said the Government taxes too much and spends too much, 27% said too little. But YouGov’s latest findings suggest the taxpayers’ revolt has gathered steam. A whopping 41% of us now agree that tax and spend has gone too far, and just 21% think the Government should take more of our money.
As a measure of the direction of public opinion, the crucial point was that the wording stayed the same. I would have had a quibble here if it were being asked whether the Government ‘spends too much on services’ or ‘spends too little on services’. It did also have the merit of linking spending and tax together. A lot of voters will favour paying less tax while also opposing spending cuts when they are put as separate questions.
What if, with nerdish aplomb, we take a ‘deep dive’ into the data and consider the demographic subsets? The youngest voters – 18- to 24-year olds – back tax and spending cuts over increases by 22% to 19%. So still a narrow lead for cutters – even though many in that youth cohort will be students doing woke college courses, yet to confront the reality of earning a living. But among other age groups, the lead is considerable: 40% to 22% among 25- to 49-year olds; 43% to 22% among 50- to 64-year olds.
It is not surprising that there is a big variation between the parties. Conservative voters back cuts by 61% to 8%. Labour voters still back tax increases, with 32% in favour, but 25% of Labour voters want tax and spending cuts and another 24% responded with ‘don’t know’. That suggests to me that the Government should worry about how soft a lot of its support is. Labour’s popularity has already fallen significantly. But are they down to their ‘core vote’? Not really if such a big chunk of Labour voters already feel tax and spending is too high. If the Labour Government keeps pushing tax and spending even higher, how much longer will the endurance of their voters continue?
The Labour Party were partly responsible for breaking the spell. They correctly denounced the Conservatives for presiding over the highest tax burden for 70 years. They pledged not to increase tax on working people. But they also made the broader case that growth required incentives in the private sector. They didn’t really have a mandate for socialism. But that is what they are giving us.
What about the class war? The time-honoured mechanism to win support for tax rises was to say the rich would pay them. The YouGov polling shows tax and spending cuts backed by the socio-economic groups C2, D and E (a rather crude shorthand for the poor), as well as by the swankier classes in C1, B and A. Indeed, the poor back cuts by a wider margin – 43% to 19%. The rich by 40% to 23%. Of course, there are a lot of well-paid public sector jobs.
How did the Conservatives manage to lose their bearings so badly? Tax and spend not only made a mockery of what they were supposed to stand for. It also alienated them from the voters. The staggering cost of the lockdown during the Covid pandemic is often cited as being necessary ‘due to circumstances beyond our control’. That certainly marked the high watermark of the big state consensus. The resulting hangover from the bills coming in has been salutary.
But there was more to it. Theresa May and Boris Johnson are different personalities, but pragmatists rather than ideologues. In July 2019, when Johnson took over from May as Prime Minister, 35% felt tax and spending was too low against only 23% who thought it too high.
Thus Johnson shrugged and thought more spending was the route to popularity. Hence why ‘levelling up’, which could have been about unleashing enterprise to spread prosperity, instead became a drab Procrustean, egalitarian mantra of handing subsidies to the rundown ‘red wall’ – to no avail.
Rishi Sunak offered yet higher tax for yet more spending. An important political skill is not merely to be aware of public opinion but to spot the direction it is taking. It is also to realise you will be judged by the results of the policies being brought in – regardless of the expectations people might have.
Who is banging the drum for tax and spend today? The Government is apologetic about it. The Conservatives and Reform UK are vociferous in attacking it – although the latter’s recent energy policies suggest a change of tack. The Liberal Democrats have gone rather quiet. The international zeitgeist is going the other way.
There is a growing realisation that we have reached the end of the road. That yet higher tax will prove counterproductive. That pouring in more spending to the state machine will not improve services. Politicians are slowly accepting this. There is some evidence that the voters are ahead of them.
Click here to subscribe to our daily briefing – the best pieces from CapX and across the web.
CapX depends on the generosity of its readers. If you value what we do, please consider making a donation.
