The day after Rishi Sunak called a general election during a deluge of rain outside Number 10, he travelled to Belfast to campaign in the city’s Titanic Quarter. Was it brave or foolish to ignore the potential symbolism, as headline writers asked whether the Conservative Party would be swept away or sunk after the British public have voted on July 4?

In reality, the Titanic decision was not as inexplicable as it seemed. This waterfront area, home to the famous Harland and Wolff shipyard, is now a hub for tourism, tech businesses and the province’s successful film and television industry. Perhaps more importantly, for visiting politicians, it is situated next to the George Best City Airport, which allows them to get away from Northern Ireland with unseemly speed.

It’s become something of a general election tradition for Conservative leaders to pay whirlwind visits to all four corners of the United Kingdom at the start of their campaigns. The ritual highlights the Tories’ supposed commitment to the Union and their status as the only major national party that contests seats in Northern Ireland.

In Ulster, the Conservative Party consists of a few hundred indefatigable campaigners, some of whom met Mr. Sunak and the province’s Secretary of State, Chris Heaton-Harris, at a private function last week. The party’s local organisation has struggled to compete in elections, but, on a joint ticket with the Ulster Unionists, Tory branded candidates attracted over 15% of the vote as recently as 2010.

The Northern Ireland Conservatives claim to be a ‘centre-right alternative to… sectarian politics’ in Northern Ireland that allows the electorate in the province to ‘participate as equal citizens of the United Kingdom.’ In the past, however, activists felt that they received only lukewarm support from Tory headquarters.

Conservative central office seemed reluctant to vie wholeheartedly with the province’s local parties in case that undermined the idea that the Government could act as an impartial referee in Ulster. In recent elections, there were also anxieties that a raucous campaign might offend the DUP, which was viewed as a potential coalition partner after polling day.

That’s only one minor problem these days for Tories in Northern Ireland, thanks to the way that successive Prime Ministers have handled the region since 2016. If candidates emphasise their non-sectarian credentials in this election, casting the NI Conservatives as an alternative to divisive ‘Orange’ and ‘Green’ parties, they’re likely to be sneered at by so-called liberal voters, who still blame the Tories for Brexit.

If instead they focussed on UK-unionism, the idea of equal citizenship and an aspiration to bring Northern Ireland back into the heart of British politics, they are appealing to voters who are furious about the Irish Sea border and all the subterfuge that went with it. The Traditional Unionist Voice party (now allied with Reform UK), for example, argues that equal citizenship can only be achieved by scrapping the NI Protocol and the Windsor Framework.

Privately, many Northern Irish Tories agree with that diagnosis. While devolved governments in Northern Ireland, and the unionist parties that embraced them, were always prone to exceptionalism, the Conservatives attracted activists who wanted the province to become involved in mainstream British politics.

Thanks to the post-Brexit arrangements, that goal has never seemed further away. In many key policy areas, and not just the economy, Westminster cannot pass laws for Northern Ireland, according to recent court judgments. It is no longer credible to claim that British citizenship in Northern Ireland carries the same rights, entitlements and responsibilities as elsewhere in the UK.

Irish nationalists and pro-EU liberals in the province campaigned for that outcome, and officials from the EU and the Republic of Ireland negotiated hard to bring it about, but it was the Conservative and Unionist Party that signed the agreements and enacted the Irish Sea border in parliament.

The outcome is that many pro-Union voters in Northern Ireland are apprehensive about the forthcoming election and the complicated sentiments it induces. Some of them argue that a Labour government would make the worst of their problems go away, because it intends to align the whole UK closely with the EU. That should mean that trade barriers become less significant.

They are aware, though, that that is not a permanent solution, while the Protocol and Framework remain in place. If and when policies change in Westminster, these agreements mean Northern Ireland will continue to be detached further from the rest of the UK, legally, economically and politically.

There are other reasons for unionists to worry about a Labour administration. While Keir Starmer and his Shadow Northern Ireland Secretary Hilary Benn, are not viewed as advocates of an all-Ireland state, sympathy for Irish separatism in the party remains strong. Rishi Sunak’s visit to Belfast may largely have been a token exercise, but at least Conservative leaders still feel the need to talk about the importance of the Union to Ulster voters, even if it is only a formality.

For the Tory candidates in Northern Ireland, the Prime Minister’s appearance will have offered a morale boost, even if it gave them little realistic hope. Conservative leaders have repeatedly come to Belfast to profess their unionism, but their governments have done significant harm to the Union, particularly in the years since 2016.

That fact brings to mind the words of an Ulster bellboy, who had just met his hero, George Best, some time in the 1970s. As the late footballer spread his casino winnings on a hotel bed that also contained Miss World, this humble staff member plucked up the courage to ask, ‘Mr. Best, where did it all go wrong?’

So, Mr. Sunak, as you rushed through George Best Belfast City Airport last week, did you stop to wonder ‘where did it all go wrong’ for the Conservatives in Northern Ireland?

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