The latest Home Office migration statistics have been released, showing that the overall number of people coming to the UK has reduced, at least since the last set of figures. Restrictions to the Immigration Rules brought in by the Conservatives before their general election defeat have succeeded, at least in their limited aims.
Health and Care Worker visa applications have decreased by 81% compared to the same period last year, while dependent visas have reduced 71%. There was an increase in the number of Skilled Worker visa applications before the restrictions were brought in in April but they have since returned to roughly the same rate as before, albeit that means they were still 23% higher than for the same period last year. Dependents for those on Skilled Worker visas have also increased by 26%, possibly indicating that some people are choosing the Skilled Worker visa over the Health and Care Worker visa to still enable them to bring dependents to the UK.
Study visas also declined by 16% compared to last year, but last year was the highest level on record, with over 700,000 students coming here. That means the arbitrary target set by the Department of Education for 600,000 students studying here by 2030 has been smashed years ahead of time. It might be too soon to say student numbers are actually falling however, as the peak period for applications naturally comes between July and September so aren’t reflected in this set of figures.
That student visas have remained robust is no doubt because they were largely exempted from the Conservative’s introduction of new restrictions, with senior members of the Cabinet at the time, like Lord Cameron, arguing strongly against anything which might make Britain less attractive to foreign students. That is good news for universities, which are heavily reliant on the much higher fees they are able to charge international student, but it doesn’t fix the structural issues which leave university finances in peril or change the fact that, for some, education has become a backdoor for low-skilled immigration.
So long as the Graduate visa remains, which gives foreign students the right to work here for two years after graduating, taking on a degree in the UK will remain an attractive route for those ultimately seeking to work here.
While public opinion strongly favours student visas, imagining the best and brightest from across the world studying at our globally-leading universities, that isn’t reflected in reality. The increase in use of Graduate visas has overwhelmingly been among those from poor countries who end up working in roles paying below the UK average, effectively using one-year degrees as a cover to take on low-skilled work. As Neil O’Brien MP has argued, this distorts our labour market and places significant additional pressure on our infrastructure.
In another blogpost, utilising Freedom of Information requests, O’Brien has shown that the wave of immigration since the rules were liberalised in 2021 has meant that the largest national groups of immigrants, like Indians and Nigerians, have seen a significant drop in their average earnings, with those of working age now earning less than British nationals. That’s a reversal of the pre-2021 trend, when Indians and Nigerians earnt slightly more, signifying that the new arrivals must be earning significantly less.
Although the Conservative restrictions have reduced numbers overall, net migration is still at a higher level than it was before 2021, with this set to be the new normal unless even more rigorous restrictions are brought in. That seems unlikely, with the new Labour government having so far chosen to outsource much of their immigration policy to quangos.
With Labour complaining about their limited financial options and the need to make cuts in some departments, immigration ought to be a major focus for savings. Low-skill immigration is costly in the long-run, with the majority of such migrants being a net fiscal negative as they require more in benefits and spending than they contribute.
Our immigration levels are also above our house building ability, meaning that while migration outpaces housebuilding there are higher housing costs for everyone. There is also the costly impact of mass immigration on public goods like our transport network or healthcare system, as outlined by O’Brien, Robert Jenrick MP, and Karl Williams in their recent report for the Centre for Policy Studies.
If Labour are really determined to go for growth, then they should be much more selective on migration, heavily reducing net migration and selecting for only the most fiscally beneficial migrants. The public finances will thank them.
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