Donald Trump might take this as a compliment, but he resembles two very different pursuits: Wagner and red-deer stalking in the Scottish highlands. In both cases, nobody is indifferent. Some find themselves addicted: others repelled. The same is true of Trump. His supporters revel in MAGA. His opponents believe that the Oval Office has been taken over by the devil incarnate.
The new President is one of the most extraordinary human beings in the whole of history, though there are still elements of mystery, especially as regards his finances. I asked a Wall Street commentator whether the Trump fortune is in the billions. ‘Certainly’ came the answer ‘and the first figure may not be a one. But there is a question. Should that first number be preceded by a plus – or a minus?’
One point is becoming clear, however. Some old-fashioned Republicans – there are still a few left – had been hoping that with victory, and back in the White House, the Donald might calm down. Yet there is no sign of this.
Trump has always been known as a disrupter, and it seems likely that Theodore Roosevelt’s bully pulpit will become Donald Trump’s disrupter’s pulpit. Over the next four years, the President might well behave like a four-year-old on hallucinogens. Given this, it is probably a good thing that Joe Biden handed out so many pardons. Previous generations of American lawyers would have been appalled by this. Even if there has not been an actual breach of the US Constitution, there was certainly a violation of the spirit. But since Watergate, there has been a malign growth in the criminalisation of political differences. If Biden’s pardons had not thwarted Trump’s vindictiveness, we could have witnessed new depths. So there might have been wisdom admixed with the final phase of dotage.
That said, there may be other dangerous depths that we are yet to discover. Donald Trump shows every sign of being a primitive mercantilist. He appears to believe that if a foreigner makes a buck off the back of the US, he is somehow stealing it. There is, alas, no evidence that the President has read much history. In the unlikely event of his wanting to know about the past, he would just make it up. Yet it is a pity that he does not know anything about the difference between British and French economic history in the century before the French Revolution – or about the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930. Those helped to promote instability in Europe and they did not do much good for the US economy either. Today, there is no justification for a trade war with Canada and Mexico. This does not mean that it will not happen. But the President likes making deals. His modus operandi is threatening followed by settling. Let us hope that this will be true of his approach to tariffs, and not only in North America. If this proves excessively optimistic, and he lives up to his rhetoric, the British economy will potentially suffer some problems which cannot be blamed on Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves.
While awaiting developments, there are those who say that we should consider congratulating Starmer on one success: Peter Mandelson’s appointment to Washington. His serpentine cunning will be tested to the uttermost: successfully, let us hope. But perhaps the congratulations should go to Tony Blair, not the current Labour leader. It is said that the Mandelson appointment was due to Blair, which is easy to believe, for two reasons. First, the former Prime Minister is fully aware of Lord Mandelson’s qualities. Second, without substantial guidance, Starmer cannot get anything right.
However, whether Mandelson’s appointment as Ambassador will make a difference or not depends on those close to Trump. Despite some Washington observers having lost money by betting that Elon Musk would already have parted company with the President, he remains close, and a cursory glance at his X account shows his interest in influencing British politics.
There is only one way to restore stability to the UK. Not boring old Starmer, still less Ed Davey and certainly not Muskian pyrotechnics. What is needed is a change that should not be impossible: to turn the Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative Party into the most exciting political force in Britain.
Click here to subscribe to our daily briefing – the best pieces from CapX and across the web.
CapX depends on the generosity of its readers. If you value what we do, please consider making a donation.