If you think you’ve had a tough year, spare a thought for Ayatollah Khamenei. Iran’s Supreme Leader has had a 2024 to forget, with his sulphurous statesmanship boosting opposition towards his regime at home and abroad, while allies fall by the wayside.
The speed with which Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria collapsed has shocked Tehran. As well as the collapse of overland supply routes to key proxies like Hezbollah, the demise of Iran’s longtime ally has demonstrated how 50-year-old dynasties can disappear within a fortnight. It was, however, only the latest setback to befall Iran’s leaders this year, with Khamenei’s ailing theocracy one of the biggest losers amid seismic geopolitical shifts reverberating across the Middle East and beyond.
The regime’s sponsorship of Hamas’ murderous October 7 attack was intended to humble Israel and its government. Instead, it has emboldened it. The resulting conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon have been catastrophic for both Hamas and Hezbollah, with their capabilities degraded and leadership killed. As a result, it has been Iran that has been humbled. The elimination in Tehran of Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh laid bare Iran’s determined stewardship of its proxy, and its commitment to destabilising the Middle East. The failure of retaliatory Iranian missile strikes on Israel in October – the second such attack – served only to demonstrate the recklessness of the regime, as well as its military impotence.
Ironically, Iran’s efforts to foment dissent beyond its borders have instead fuelled widespread opposition to the regime at home. Iran’s economy remains devastated by sanctions. Inflation is running perilously close to 50%, while the country’s poverty rate has doubled since 2018. At the same time Khamenei was ordering the price of bread to rise, his regime was also investing eye-watering sums propping up a vast network of dependent proxies. Recent revelations suggest that Iran spent as much as $30 billion to keep Assad in power, alongside more than $220 million gifted to Hamas between 2014 and 2020.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, public discord inside Iran is growing fast. The regime is viewed widely as neglecting what is essential – around a third of homes are frequently without power – while mandating what clothes citizens should wear and what websites they can visit. Efforts by Iran’s leaders to suppress dissent have done the opposite. The extraordinary bravery shown by men – and especially women – in opposition to the regime has not yet reached critical mass, but it is close.
And as if things couldn’t get any worse, Donald Trump’s re-election is certain to ramp up international pressure on the regime. During his first term, Trump made no secret of his view of Iran as a major threat to the US, taking extraordinary steps to degrade its capabilities, including the assassination of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani. There can be little doubt that Trump’s second term will see a doubling down on that effort, not least due to Tehran’s alleged involvement in a plan to assassinate him earlier this year.
With challenges mounting, time is not on the Ayatollah’s side. The 85-year-old Khameini has been in power since 1989, making him the longest-serving ruler in the Middle East. With his health reportedly failing and no consensus candidate waiting in the wings, a succession crisis looms. His death will severely weaken Iran’s theocracy – one with dwindling popular appeal – exposing the varied competing factions that have lain dormant for more than three decades.
Next year will mark the 46th anniversary of Iran’s revolution. Since 1979, Iranians have seen many neighbouring countries opt for change in the face of oppressive regimes that restrict much and deliver little. For a growing number of Iranians, the regime is not delivering. Khamenei will start 2025 with an ailing economy, diminished allies, mounting popular unrest and emboldened adversaries. To make matters worse, Donald Trump has been named Time Magazine’s Man of the Year. Happy Christmas, Ayatollah.
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