Is James Cleverly’s processor stripping its gears? He appeared on the deck of Radio 4s Today programme on Tuesday to declare ‘mission accomplished’ in delivering the Prime Ministers pledge to deal with the asylum claim backlog which stood at 92,000 in June this year. These claims had now been ‘processed’ he declared.
But what does that mean exactly? The Home Secretary said that the ‘vast majority’ of these claims had been ‘settled’, though it became clear that this did not necessarily mean completed. Nor would ‘completed’ mean any failed applicants being deported anywhere. They were still in the Government’s processor, whirling around, blended in sophistry. Moreover, the processor had apparently spat out 17,000 applications as ‘withdrawn’. This number includes claimants who Home Office Caseworkers have lost contact with. It is the claimant’s responsibility to maintain contact with the case worker you see. Not so much ‘processed’, then, as repackaged.
While the terminology is being stretched to incredulity to confirm a political pledge, it is not fair to say that the Home Office has been doing nothing. Cleverly is barely in post and has inherited a department whose approach to irregular migration has been characterised by dysfunctionality and truculence for years. The difference now is a matter of scale and geopolitics. While Border Force and new treaties have made an impact on cross-channel migration, our departure from the EU has left us with little leverage with the French, who have no real incentive to stop small boats from launching from their shores even when we provide them with kit and generous bungs. While the crossings have reduced substantially of late, this might simply be a function of bad weather, not good progress – it’s too early to tell.
But while we can argue about the fate of the ‘known knowns’ – those who are, however tenuously, within the gaze of the state – there is another constituency which should be bothering us more. The Migration Watch think tank estimated that between 2014 and 2022 some 320,000 illegal/irregular migrants were stopped at ports in Northern France and prevented from travel. In last year’s provisional figures, 29,437 people arrived here in small boats. This figure will not nearly account for all arrivals here. Who and where are the rest?
No one is talking about these clandestine arrivals who have melted into the background, traumatised, exploited, enslaved. Yet they will include tomorrow’s violent extremists who do or will pose a threat to national security. We have literally no idea where these people are or the level of threat they pose. We do know that failed asylum seekers who do make it into the system and somehow remain stuck there, sometimes for years, have committed terrorist acts that have stunned this country. The Parsons Green tube bomb, the Reading stabbing rampage, the Liverpool women’s hospital bomb – all carried out by individuals stuck in or rejected by our asylum system. While this is hardly a trend, and the majority of known or unknown illegal migrants pose no threat, even a small number of thwarted, destitute and radicalised individuals operating in secret can cause untold horror. While the Government obsesses over the ludicrous fiction of sending a tiny number of asylum applicants to Rwanda at some unknowable point in the future, we have an arguably greater threat already inside the country.
It’s not at all unreasonable to think that transnational terrorists. mobilised by regional conflicts with the West from Syria to Gaza. will exploit the holes in our defences to export their grievances here. In fact, I’d argue that it is rational behaviour to take advantage of wide open vectors, including the porous Northern Ireland border to bring in future combatants and allow them to melt into the background until needed. This is a threat not limited to Great Britain. In July 2023, nine nationals from Central Asia were arrested in connection with preparing terrorist attacks on behalf of Islamic State inspired terror attacks in Germany. They had reportedly crossed the border hidden among a large number of Ukrainian refugees fleeing the country after Russia’s invasion. James Cleverly was correct to say that many countries suffer from an unquantifiable number of people who fall off the immigration radar, or who were never on it in the first place, but given the current terrorism threat this is hardly reassuring.
They don’t lend themselves to glossy PR, but much more effort needs to be put into two vital reforms. Firstly, we need to boost the efforts run mainly by tiny charities to make sure asylum seekers are integrated into our society, their psychological needs met, and that they are as aware of their obligations as their rights. It doesn’t matter what your views on immigration policy are on this, here is the problem in front of us. We know that disaffected young people in this country are vulnerable to radicalisation as the reality of life in the UK sets in. Investing in their welfare is investing in our national security. Secondly, we need much more urgency in reconnecting with the EU’s security information system, SIS II, which we were locked out of after Brexit. This was an invaluable tool for Border Force and Police to gain vital intelligence on foreign nationals, accessed millions of times by UK law enforcement before we left. We are years away from this being restored. And the benefit works both ways. In December, A British Palestinian activist in Berlin was accused of running Hamas networks across Europe, following the arrest of several suspected Hamas activists who it is said were planning planning attacks on Jewish targets in Germany.
No area of this debate should be off limits. The potential threat to national security from clandestine migrants is real and I believe it is present. Rwanda won’t keep us safer. Finding the known unknowns will.
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