It looks as if the tunnel boring machines have been ordered for HS2’s big dig from Old Oak Common to Euston. If so, this is very bad news, not improved by Transport Secretary Louise Haigh declaring that it would never have made sense not to build the link to Euston. To be fair to the Transport Secretary, I’m not sure she actually knows the area. Bluntly, even most Londoners have no idea where Old Oak Common is. But for those of us who have followed the course of HS2 and the Elizabeth Line over the last two decades, her assertion is certainly not based on economics or geography.
Given the way big projects have been handled in the UK, under governments of both colours, for at least the last four decades, it might not be a surprise that the Government is about to waste a great deal of money on this one. The HS2 story is already, frankly, appalling. From the initial Hybrid Bill to the ludicrous cancellation of the line by Rishi Sunak – announced, of all places, in Manchester – it is a monument to British failure where big projects are concerned. We now know that the Lower Thames Crossing has been around for almost a decade as a project, has cost £300 million in planning costs alone, and while it was about to be signed off by ministers in July this year, the new Government has postponed the final decision until May next year. I would not be suprised in the slightest if, despite all the money spent hitherto, the whole project was canned in the Budget. I took the first Crossrail Bill through Parliament in 1995. The Elizabeth Line opened 27 years later (and, within a year, is now the busiest line in the UK). On that basis, if we ever do see HS2 as a working railway in my lifetime, I’ll be surprised.
Old Oak Common, for those who don’t know, is the point at which HS2 runs parallel with the Elizabeth Line. It was always planned that this would be the point at which travellers from the North would switch to the Crossrail service. There were extensive plans drawn up, showing how a podium would be erected over the platforms of both lines which would allow passengers to interchange. The podium would comprise homes, offices and retail. Sir Terry Farrell, who first saw the potential of Old Oak Common as a massive development opportunity, laid all this out a couple of decades ago. Old Oak Common is a vast acreage of land between the borders of Kensington and Chelsea and Park Royal. It is much, much more than a meeting of two train lines, but their juxtaposition is hugely important.
Why does this matter? Well, think of what a probable £7 billion tunnel (and that’s the likely outturn price) would actually deliver. There is already a route from Manchester and Birmingham to Euston. The West Coast Mainline has been around for more than a century. For passengers who do want to go to Euston, it would be the obvious route to take. But in reality Euston is something of a desert. It is not near the West End or the City. The station is served by two Tube lines, Victoria and Northern, both of which are North/South lines – great for London commuters, but not likely to be of interest to the HS2 traveller. As it is, most business journeys ending at Euston are followed by a taxi to the traveller’s destination.
The obvious way to optimise the new capacity is for HS2 passengers to begin their London journey by changing over to the Elizabeth Line at Old Oak Common, which then takes them smoothly to Paddington, the West End, Midtown, the City, Docklands, ExCel, and further East both north and south of the river. These are the places business people actually want to visit. HS2’s users will overwhelmingly be business passengers who value the time savings and are prepared to pay a premium. A £7bn tunnel to Euston is only the answer for people who have been led to believe that this is essential for HS2 to work, ministers included. The truth is very different.
Meanwhile, we need more housing in London. The vast site currently needed for HS2 access to Euston could actually be used for housing, something which the local authority, Camden Council, desperately needs.
At the very least, this should be a matter for serious debate before a decision is taken. Extending HS2 to Euston will not only be a huge waste of public money but will seriously impact the potential for the 26,000 homes and 55,000 jobs that Old Oak Common can actually deliver over the next two decades. That is what the Old Oak Common and Park Royal Development Corporation (OPDC), set up by Boris Johnson when Mayor, was and still is created to deliver.
Maybe it really is because so few Londoners – let alone MPs and ministers from outside the capital – actually know the site we’re talking about. It wouldn’t be the first time even dafter things have happened.
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