Over the United States’ memorial day weekend, a convention took place in Orlando, Florida. Attendees saw an overweight man strip down to his underwear on stage, an anti-virus software company chief snogging his wife, and a man with a rubber boot on his head holding up pieces of toast with his face on them. Oh, and they also voted for a candidate who might determine who will be the next President of the United States.
In case you haven’t worked it out yet, it was the Libertarian Party National Convention.
After two ballots, the party nominated former Republican New Mexico governor Gary Johnson as their presidential candidate. While very few voters know him, Johnson is hoping to take advantage of the trend for the ‘outsider candidate’, and the astonishingly high unpopularity of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Despite some rather peculiar characters among its ranks, in this unique year the Libertarian Party could genuinely have a significant impact on the presidential election.
The Libertarian Party’s position is best summed up by their oft-quoted phrase: “keeping Republicans out of your bedroom and Democrats out of your wallet”. Unlike the GOP, they are socially liberal, while unlike Democrats, they are fiscally conservative. Their stance for “minimum government” and “maximum freedom” includes policies like dramatically reduced government spending and the legalisation of marijuana. The party’s purists, who were reluctant to nominate Johnson, even debate whether people should need driving licenses, and argue that the 1964 Civil Rights Act was wrong in extending anti-discrimination law to business.
The question is, then, who might vote for the Libertarian platform in November? With many Republicans doubting Donald Trump’s conservatism, and disaffected Bernie Sanders supporters looking for a break from establishment politics, there is an opportunity for Johnson to win votes on both sides of the political spectrum. Also, Johnson’s military scepticism seems to align with the popular mood, at odds with Hillary Clinton’s perceived hawkishness. Above all, the Libertarian vision is a lot clearer than anything which Trump or Clinton have presented: people don’t really know what the two want to achieve with the presidency, beyond making America ‘great’, or not being Donald Trump.
However, how can Johnson win over the ‘right’ with his stances on drugs (legalisation), abortion (pro-choice), and equal marriage (support), or take votes from the ‘left’ with policies like cutting back on social security, taxes and government regulation? Given Johnson’s GOP past, some Republicans could see past his social progressivism to back a fiscal conservative, but it might be harder for rank-and-file Democrats to vote for economic policies which are so directly at odds with their progressive values. The biggest appeal will probably be to independents, who are neither FDR New Dealers nor Reaganites, and are angered by the size and scope of their government.
Johnson has the credentials for a strong presidential run. Along with his running mate Bill Weld, the former governor of Massachusetts, he has served in a blue state as a Republican, and can boast cut taxes, job growth and a balanced budget. The former two-term governor is also a self-made millionaire, growing a 1,000-employee construction firm from scratch. Meanwhile, his measured, down-to-earth persona directly contrasts with Clinton’s insincere manner and Trump’s brashness.
For what seems like the duration of this race, speculation has continued over whether an independent third party candidate might run in November. Rumours have swirled about bids from Michael Bloomberg, Mitt Romney, and more recently David French. Regardless of the financial and strategic questions, it is logistically prohibitive for an independent to get on the ballot in enough states to mount a viable campaign. The first state ballot deadlines have already begun to close. The Libertarian Party meanwhile, will likely be on the ballot in all 50 states.
So do they have a chance? Historically, third party candidates have made little ground, but there are some significant exceptions to the rule. In 1968, for example, George Wallace took five states off Richard Nixon in the South. More recently, in 1992 the businessman Ross Perot won nearly 20 million votes. While he did not carry any states, it could have been a different story if he had not abruptly dropped out in July for a few months. In June, a Gallup Poll had him leading George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton with 39 points. Americans believed the country was on the wrong track, while Clinton and Bush had very low popularity ratings. Sounds familiar, doesn’t it.
The Libertarians’ success will depend, more than anything else, on expenditure and exposure. Johnson believes that millions of Americans are Libertarians, they just don’t realise it yet. Converting those people needs money, and that’s where Bill Weld comes in. While Johnson has raised only a few million dollars in his entire career, Weld is an expert fundraiser, having secured hundreds of millions of dollars for political campaigns. Competing against Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will need obscene amounts of cash. It is suggested they will each be spending in the region of a billion dollars or more.
As we have seen from Trump’s campaign, media attention makes a big difference. In mid-May, a Fox poll had Johnson at a respectable 10%, but there were countless other presidential polls which did not include his name. Johnson needs 15% in the polls in order to be given a place on the TV debate stage in the autumn. Getting on that stage would be hugely important, and the campaign’s lawyers are fighting a legal battle to change the rules to make it more likely. The appetite for a third party can be seen in the polls, Johnson just needs to get the message out there.
If we are being realistic, no third party has won the presidency since the American Civil War 150 years ago. Johnson is expected to vastly outperform his 1.06% of the vote received in 2012, and could well make the debate stage, but it is probably a stretch to suggest we will see the Libertarian Party win the White House. However, winning a decent chunk of the vote would put the party and their views on the map. Also, as we have seen from both primary races, a strong Libertarian campaign would influence his competitors’ messages.
Most importantly, a strong third party has the potential to significantly affect the result. Taking votes from a major party in swing states can hand the presidency to their rival. In 2000, green party nominee Ralph Nader famously won tens of thousands of votes in Florida, the state where George Bush secured the presidency over Al Gore by a staggeringly slim 537 votes. Arguably, the majority of Nader’s voters would have picked Gore over Bush. This year, speculation is rife over who the Libertarians might steal more votes from. Johnson’s popularity amongst young people and hispanics suggest he could take more votes from Hillary Clinton, yet his fiscally conservative credentials would suggest otherwise.
I would not bet on a President Gary Johnson. I would also not bet against him deciding who the President will be.
