Harsher writers might well say that this has been Kemi Badenoch’s worst week in politics since last week. To say the coverage of her performance at Prime Minister’s Questions on Wednesday was not what her team would’ve hoped for would be an understatement. The Times’ write-up of the affair carries the headline: ‘Badenoch steps into the ring and punches herself in the face’.
Not far off the mark. The main event at the latest instalment of Punch and Judy was a discussion of a court ruling this week that allowed a Gazan family of six to join their brother in the UK after applying through a scheme designed for Ukrainian refugees. The case has been met with outrage – confirming to many that it is not the state that has the power to decide who comes to Britain, but activist judges all too happy to allow migrants to exploit loopholes.
Badenoch probed Keir Starmer about this at PMQs, asking him if he would move to overturn the decision. Starmer has been doing this a bit longer than Badenoch, and it shows. He agreed that it was the wrong decision from the judge, and reminded his opposite number that it was the government she served in that created said loophole. Game, set and match.
These missteps are having an impact. Almost half of Conservative voters say that Badenoch does not come across as a Prime Minister in waiting. Her main competitor, however, is not her sparring partner at PMQs but Nigel Farage, and he is doing comparatively well. Reform UK are now top of the polls and their leader is a more popular figure than the Prime Minister. Admittedly, this is a low bar – Farage is only popular with 34% of the public and is more disliked than liked.
Farage does have some obvious strengths over Badenoch. He has a natural charisma and ease with people which plays well on both social media and the doorstep. He is, most crucially, not a Conservative. Thus he is unburdened by having been a major player in a government which oversaw the largest surge in migration on record and highest tax burden since the Second World War.
But this doesn’t tell the whole story, and an event this week could give Badenoch the opportunity she needs to show that her party have the edge over Reform. On Thursday, in the wake of the PMQs debacle, Reform laid out their plan for ‘lowering energy bills for working people’. This would involve scrapping Net Zero by whacking a windfall tax on renewable energy, levying a solar farm tax on subsidised farmers (yes, a tax on a subsidy), banning battery energy storage systems and forcing the National Grid to lay cables underground rather than using much cheaper pylons.
The derisive response was unanimous and the social media commentariat were rightly quick to point out the economic illiteracy of these proposals. Unnecessary taxes and genuflection to rural Nimbys are what have put this country on standby when it comes to growth. The last thing we need is more of the same. Yet this is what Reform, a party led by a self-declared lover of Margaret Thatcher, have been able to muster.
A Reform spokesperson, clearly embarrassed by the backlash, has told Guido Fawkes that the plan merely represented a ‘direction of travel’, rather than an actual policy offering.
Semantics aside, the damage is done, and Badenoch has been handed the greatest gift of her leadership so far. These crackers policies are the evidence she needs to put clear blue water between her party and Reform. The Conservatives, though they’ve still got questions to answer, remain the organised, policy-focused party that Britain needs. Reform, on the other hand, are noisy upstarts, skilled at rhetoric but fundamentally a populist campaign group rather than a serious political party.
At a time when Tory grandees are talking openly about the growing likelihood of a Tory-Reform merger, pushing this narrative is crucial. Doing this, however, requires urgent action and solid policies – time is very much of the essence. After months of near-silence on policy, the Tories have made a start. Last week, Badenoch laid out her plan for tightening the conditions under which migrants can obtain Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR) status, allowing them to permanently settle in the UK. This is welcome stuff. The Centre for Policy Studies puts the long-term cost of leaving ILR rules unchanged in the context of the recent migration wave in the billions.
Politically, this is important. The Conservatives are now seen to be making concrete plans for tackling our migration crisis – an issue which has propelled Reform to their success. But we have other problems too. Energy costs are too high, our institutions have been captured by the Left, businesses face significant burdens and growth is still stagnant. Voters want a politician with a fleshed-out strategy to address this, not someone who merely acknowledges that problems exist.
Reform are demonstrating that, at the moment, they don’t have the apparatus to provide the electorate with such a figure. Badenoch is surrounded by competent, bright operators with exciting ideas for the future, but unless these ideas start to see the light of day, her popularity will continue to suffer and her light-blue counterparts will advance up the warpath.
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