Yesterday was Super Tuesday and – as expected – Donald Trump took another big step towards becoming the Republican nominee. He now has 319 delegates, Ted Cruz has 226, Marco Rubio has 110 and John Kasich has 25. 1,237 is the winning target.
We asked the YouGovUSA First Verdict panel to identify the Republican with the best chance of stopping Mr Trump reaching that 1,237 threshold. The question was posed before Dr Ben Carson announced the suspension of his campaign. Panelists were clearly of the view that Senator Ted Cuz was in prime position to prevent Mr Trump being crowned. 42% identified the Texan Senator and only 25% identified Senator Marco Rubio, generally seen as the establishment’s preferred nominee. This 42%-over-25% advantage fits with the view of my CapX colleague, Abby Schachter, who wrote yesterday that Mr Cruz was best positioned as the “anti-Trump”.
Also today, we asked the YouGov panel to predict who was most likely to win a Clinton V Trump race. 54% thought Mrs Clinton was likeliest to win and 36% thought Mr Trump would end up in the White House. This – remember – is not a preference poll but a prediction poll.
Finally we asked the panel if they thought November’s election was “very important” – with the potential to reshape the Supreme Court, reshape immigration policies and address big economic issues? Or, alternatively, would it be an unimportant election because it couldn’t end Washington’s dysfunctionality and therefore make much of a difference to the challenges facing America? Despite the prevailing sense that the nation’s capital isn’t particularly effective at the moment our panel was upbeat about the importance of November’s decision. 79% thought the choice mattered and only 17% thought it would not be an impactful election.
For more about Portrait of America and the methodology behind First Verdict, click here. For the complete Portrait of America catalog, click here.
