We have been here before, when matters seemed, if anything, even worse. I was reminded of this by a work of light fiction, perfect for holiday reading, by Jim Naughtie, called ‘Paris Spring’, set in the spring of 1968.
Back then, it was some time since there had been a French revolution, so it might have seemed that one was overdue. The Parisian universities came out in revolt as did the Communist trade unions. The government seemed to be paralysed and the streets of Paris were full of chaos. Charles de Gaulle had regarded himself as the embodiment of France. In those fraught weeks, it seemed as if he had slipped from grandeur into senility.
There were similar developments in the US. The Vietnam War left the country bitterly divided. It is still not clear how many of the young were idealists, opposed to US imperialism – or whether they merely wished to avoid the draft. Either way, the conflict broke Lyndon Johnson, an underrated President who himself possessed a strong core of idealism. LBJ decided that he could neither control events nor unify his country. So he withdrew from the Presidential race and declared that he would not seek another term. Within days came the assassination of Martin Luther King. Chaos in the streets: bloodshed in the streets.
There was also tension in Eastern Europe. In East Germany, Poland and above all in Czechoslovakia, the Soviet Union was becoming increasingly unpopular. Western intelligence observers detected growing paranoia in Moscow: fears that the West would exploit Russia’s imperial difficulties. In reality, Nato had no such intentions. In the previous two decades, the Iron Curtain had become part of the geopolitical firmament. No one in Washington or London wished to promote insecurity. But there was tension.
When it came to événements and student protests, the UK was slow on the draw. But in the universities, there was a widespread feeling that our young should join in the fun, and the older academic generation was slow to respond. In many continental universities, Marxism had been a major intellectual influence: not so in the UK. Many British undergraduates promptly declared themselves to be Marxists.
There was a great deal of shamelessness in all that. The young may have carried books around with them, yet there is a limit to the amount of Marxism which can be absorbed via the armpit.
Even so, many academics, who were intellectually honest, felt uneasily aware that an important intellectual movement appeared to have passed them by. So in the hot months of 1968, across the Western world, there was a lot of instability about.
It passed surprisingly quickly. President Nixon took office and began to extricate his country from Vietnam. President de Gaulle reestablished his authority and then handed the baton to Georges Pompidou, who would have been a great French Conservative if he had lived for a few more years. In the UK, Marxism waxed and waned.
The Prague Spring was crushed, but the Cold War was undisturbed. By the early 1970s, Messrs Nixon and Heath were in office and 1968 seemed passé.
Such Conservative optimism was premature. Events – Watergate, the miners’ strike in Britain – were to intervene before the great age of Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan: the era which ultimately spawned fantasies about a new world order and the end of history.
Now, we are back in a new world disorder. A few weeks ago, I wrote, in a spirit of incredulity, that a surprising number of otherwise sane and balanced Americans had come to believe that their country was on the edge of civil war. Today, such views are commonplace in serious journals.
Although it is till hard to believe that this is not a grotesque exaggeration, there is one point on which we can be certain. Whoever wins the Presidency, there will be no hope of uniting the country. E pluribus unum: forget it.
As for Europe, political weakness is endemic. There is one source of wry amusement. Much the strongest leader in any major European country is Giorgia Meloni. Not very long ago, she was being denounced as a neo-fascist. Now, the Germans are afraid that much more unpleasant neo-fascists are rising in ascendance, while France has its weakest government since the Fourth Republic.
In the UK, new Governments can usually expect a honeymoon period. When it comes to Keir Starmer’s administration, however, the post-nuptials have been perfunctory. The electorate and the incoming regime are already sleeping in separate bedrooms. But the voters cannot be blamed when ministers talk arrant nonsense. On Sunday, Lucy Powell, the Leader of the Commons, claimed that unless the cost of winter fuel payments to the elderly had been restricted, there would have been a run on the pound. Does she believe that? If so, it would be polite to describe her as an idiot.
If not, she obviously believes that the British public are idiots. Equally, if the markets took her seriously, there might indeed be a threat to the pound. If ministers are really feeling that nervous, matters are gravely amiss.
As for amiss, there is plenty of that in the Ukraine and the Middle East. Throughout the chanceries of the West, wise men search for solutions: thus far, in vain.
The Paris Spring now seems a remote history. But what will become of the Western Alliance’s autumn?
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