As the revolving door at the White House spins ever faster, this week saw an expected arrival, an unsurprising departure, and then a somewhat unexpected arrival. First in, on Tuesday, was Mohammed bin Salman, crown prince of Saudi Arabia. Then on Thursday, President Trump’s national security advisor H.R. McMaster left his position. On his way out, McMaster passes the incoming national security adviser, John Bolton. Not forgetting Mike Pompeo, who last week moved from the CIA to the State Department.
Three conclusions about Donald Trump’s foreign policy can be drawn from all this coming and going. The first is that all conclusions are conditional. Every presidency experiences a “churn”. Appointees burn out from the workload, or cash out to the private sector, or are pulled out of their jobs by the media. But no presidency has shed so many of its original appointees so soon, and with such lurid variety of motive.
The Bush II and Obama presidencies identified foreign policy goals, then bumbled and fumbled in the intended direction, idealist or realist. The Trump presidency’s foreign policy is to restore the greatness of America, with Trump as the arbiter. So any long-term prognosis may be annulled by the next hirings and firings, and the next tweet from the President’s small but articulate thumbs.
That said, the appointment Pompeo and Bolton to key positions suggests a second conclusion. Trump is looking abroad, and aggressively so — and possibly more aggressively than any president since George W. Bush in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks. The hawks have landed.
What happened to Trump the so-called isolationist?
Presidential candidates usually campaign on domestic issues. Postwar, the exceptions have been Eisenhower, who ran on his war record; Nixon, who ran against Lyndon Johnson’s war record; and George W. Bush, who ran for re-election on post-9/11 national security. Sooner or later, though, foreign policy claims them all. The United States is too global, and domestic politics too frustrating.
When Trump ran for the White House, observers equated his talk of restoring America’s industrial base with Obama’s talk of “nation-building at home”. Democrats who had applauded Obama’s retreat from America’s foreign commitments now warned of the dangers of Trumpish “isolationism”. Republicans, who had endorsed George W. Bush’s disastrous wars, seemed content to isolate themselves too.
Trump’s announcement of tariffs on steel and aluminium accord with the isolationist analysis; yesterday, while the White House door was spinning, the Chinese retaliation on tariffs sent the Dow Jones into a 700-point dive. But his rhetoric, both on campaign trail and in the White House tells a different story. Trump has been consistent and candid in accusing foreign powers of abusing the United States’ trust and undermining the international order. And while Rex Tillerson, the ex-Secretary of State, walked quietly in the world with a small stick, General McMaster was no dove.
McMaster’s replacement by John Bolton accords with Trump’s statements. The manner in which Trump states it is unconventional and antagonistic. But his goal is the traditional goal of American foreign policy: the United States is a status quo power. It has nothing to gain from sudden alterations in the global order. The George W. Bush and Obama administrations both tried in their ways to alter that balance. Both failed.
There never was a “reset” with Russia under Obama, or a real “pivot” to Asia, either. Russia invaded Ukraine, and exacerbated the already divisive politics of Western democracies; General McMaster, in an on-mike comment that may have accelerated his departure from the White House, said he believes that there is “incontrovertible” evidence of Russian tampering in the 2016 presidential election. China continued to convert atolls into military bases, and to assert itself in the South China Sea. Meanwhile, Iran, under the diplomatic cover of Obama’s 2015 deal, is waging war in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.
The challenge for the United States remains the same, only failure has made it more pressing: to sustain the post-1945 global order. Bolton, a notoriously blunt speaker, has suggested pre-emptive action against North Korea, a much tougher attitude to Russia, and the annulment of the Iran deal.
Which brings us to this week’s other arrival. Mohammed bin Salman wants to save Saudi Arabia — from the Islamism it has funded, from its over-dependency on oil, and from the hostility of Iran — and Trump wants to save Saudi Arabia too. The day after his chummy meeting at the White House, with its emphasis on a $12.5bn purchase of American military equipment, the Senate voted on a resolution to limit American support for Saudi Arabia’s brutal war in Yemen against Iran’s Houthi proxies. The resolution was defeated, 54-45. The administration, and the Republican Party, remain committed to Saudi Arabia. Indeed, has any administration been so close to the Saudis since that of George H.W. Bush?
The Iran deal omitted controls on Iran’s ballistic missiles. European negotiators are trying to preserve the deal, by splitting the difference: long-range missiles, the kind which might target Europe or even the United States, would be controlled, but mediums-range missiles, the kind that could hit Riyadh or Tel Aviv, would not. This is the difference between war and peace, intimidation or containment for the Saudis and the Israelis. An Iran deal that survives with that kind of compromise is a recipe for war. So is the breakdown of the deal.
With all the arrivals and departures from the White House, it was easy to overlook this week’s other significant arrival and departure. Yesterday, an Air India passenger plane flew from Mumbai to Tel Aviv. Its flight path took it directly over Saudi Arabia. This is the first time that the Saudis have permitted a commercial flight to or from Israel to contaminate their airspace. The US-Saudi alliance and US-Israel alliances are tighter than they have been in years. The third link, the increasingly indiscreet Saudi-Israeli alignment, is becoming stronger too.
With the appointments of Pompeo and Bolton, Trump has formed a war cabinet. All he needs now is to wait for the war.
