A strategic partnership on critical raw materials (CRM) between the EU and Serbia is the latest manifestation of the rush to meet net zero targets. But it has also fuelled disappointment among those who had believed the EU was motivated by core political values rather than economic needs. For some, it is a triple betrayal; one that reinforces the incumbent regime, dilutes the conditionality of EU accessions and whitewashes their environmental concerns.
Last month, German chancellor Olaf Scholz raced to Belgrade arm-in-arm with Maroš Šefčovič, the outgoing European Commission Vice-President for the European Green Deal, to sign the comprehensive agreement which covers batteries and electric vehicles, allowing Serbia to leverage the opportunities created by its lithium mining. Companies including Mercedes and Stellantis are keen to ramp up investment and Serbia is now central to competing with Chinese manufacturers, despite boasting of its important ties with Beijing.
The EU hailed it as a ‘historic day for Serbia, as well as for Europe’. Scholz spoke of Europe’s economic security and his country’s automobile interests, while Šefčovič reiterated ‘our shared commitment to driving forward the green transition’. This is despite several significant protests in Serbia from environmental campaigners who oppose the deal and lithium extraction projects.
However, the deal is also a humiliation for those who believed that the EU would one day delivery greater political plurality in Serbia. Aside from Washington, Brussels was the only actor deemed capable of rescuing the political opposition from irrelevance. By signing this new CRM deal, the EU seems to have signalled its tactic support for the country’s status quo.
Serbia’s opposition claim this ‘Memorandum of Understanding’ reinforces the position of President Aleksandar Vučić, who has been accused of dragging the country towards autocracy. Some opposition figures have even claimed that Brussels should deal directly with them as opposed to the elected head of state and government. While this position might seem naïve, it shows the strength of feeling for political reform.
For those who have laboured for decades in pursuit of the country’s EU membership, the CRM deal is seen as an additional betrayal. By subverting the conditionality of the acquis communautaire to resource considerations, they feel there is little incentive for Serbia to pursue the substantial reforms required to secure European accession. The country is, in the EU’s view, now more valuable as a partner because of its willingness to share access to the lithium.
For the EU, the benefits of the deal are clear. Serbia’s lithium deposits would cover much of its current needs, with Rio Tinto – the concession holder – estimating supplies of 58,000 tonnes per year. In the face of global Chinese competition (China currently produces 33,000 tonnes domestically), the race for resources is deemed increasingly existential.
This makes the project one of national significance for Serbia, which had previously suspended the project in the face of widespread protests. These protests have resumed now the green light has been given. Rio Tinto has promised to adhere ‘to the highest domestic and international environmental protection standards’, but despite the EU’s promised oversight, environmental groups are far from convinced.
The environmental idealism of the deal, however, does not extend to how the transition is ultimately achieved. Germany itself has substantial lithium reserves, but they are exceeded by reserves of domestic resistance. Though many are committed to net zero, they oppose domestically mining the very resources required. It is easier, therefore, to outsource the environmental and political consequences of the green transition.
For the protesters in Serbia, this outsourcing reinforces the sense that Western interests are trumping their own. While mobilisations against small-scale hydroelectric power plants attract celebrity endorsement – Leonardo DiCaprio, for one, has stood up for the Vjosa river in Albania – those against mining fall to the wayside.
The same tensions may soon be felt beyond Serbia. Vast lithium deposits have been found in Republika Srpska, one of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s two entities, whose president, Milorad Dodik, has regularly threatened secession. The entity’s dire finances make the lure of lithium impossible to ignore, no matter how pronounced the local resistance. The consequences for this already fragmented country will be profound.
For those simultaneously committed to environmental action, political plurality and EU membership, such strategic partnerships represent a triple betrayal. While a priority for Brussels, they dilute whatever hopes remained that EU accession would drive change – not least as they further cement Serbia’s regional centrality through resources, not reforms.
This is the geopolitical and geostrategic EU that many called for, particularly after Russia invaded Ukraine. But it is also an EU that will put its own interests firmly at the forefront of diplomatic considerations. For those who believed Brussels was a panacea for all their problems, it is a quite a reality check.
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