The fates of Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn have been moving in opposite directions in recent weeks. The Prime Minister has handled the unprecedented use of a nerve agent on British soil with a reassuring level of competence and leads a government that makes up for its lack of dynamism with responsible stewardship at an uncertain time.
The Labour leader has, by contrast, delivered a hat-trick of interventions that demonstrate the cocktail of stupidity and prejudice that makes him such a dangerous candidate for Prime Minister. First came his response to the horrendous attack on Yulia and Sergei Skripal, which revealed his anti-West bias and included the immortally bright idea that Russia be sent a sample of the nerve agent so they can “categorically say one way or another” whether they were to blame. Then there was the latest, and, in a crowded field, arguably the most shocking chapter in the Labour anti-Semitism saga very much of Corbyn’s creation. He rounded off a trifecta of nonsense with a non-condemnation of the Assad regime that will have satisfied all the Stop the War cranks and conspiracy theorists that have joined the Labour Party since he was elected leader. So principled is his stance on the Syrian civil war that it has persuaded fascist former BNP leader Nick Griffin to vote Labour for the first time in his life.
Contrary to the widely-made claim that the public pays no attention to these developments, May and Corbyn’s contrasting performances are starting to show in the polls. A recent YouGov survey found a 19-point increase in the percentage of people who think the Labour leader is doing “badly” since December 2017 to 56 per cent, with the proportion who say he is doing “well” has fallen from 31 to 14 per cent.
This is why the Conservatives are cheerier now than at any time since last year’s catastrophic general election. But if the unrelenting incompetence of their opposition has boosted Conservative spirits, it should also prompt them to reflect on the lack of any meaningful gap between the two main parties in the opinion polls.
Yes, they are winning the day-to-day battles on questions of their leaders’ competence. But they still risk losing the deeper argument about the direction of the country, the causes of the problems we face and what government should do to fix those problems.
Two stories from the last few days demonstrate the point. The first is the recent uptick in violent crime. To counter this development, Amber Rudd on Monday launched a “serious crime strategy”, the details of which were obscured by the leaked Home Office report that said budget cuts “likely contributed” to recent violence.
The difficulty with issues like this is that in some cases money may be part of the problem. Police budgets have been cut by 18 per cent in the past eight years, and you don’t have to be a hard-left Corbynista wonder if this has made the job of keeping the streets safe slightly harder. It’s also possible that the 2014 reform to stop and search is partly to blame, but given that Theresa May considers that a major achievement of her time at the Home Office, it is not surprise that the government has no plans to reverse those changes.
Then came yesterday’s announcement that British Gas will be hiking the price of its standard variable tariff by an average of 5.5 per cent from the end of May, an increase that will hit four million customers. Energy bills are just one of the issues that the Conservatives have weaponised against themselves. Theresa May’s promise of an energy price cap last year bought into Labour’s logic that rising energy prices are the product of a lack of government intervention. The only thing worse than making that argument is making it and then not doing anything about it. The Labour Party never misses an opportunity to blame rising energy bills on Tory inaction. Before that the argument was built on dodgy economics. Now it is a question of broken promises.
Consider a voter concerned about the cost of living. Both May and Corbyn are telling her that Something Must Be Done about energy prices. But if the one actually in a position to do something refuses to act, it’s no surprise that the voter might be drawn to the alternative.
Energy bills demonstrate the futility of of what the Spectator’s James Forsyth memorably described as “fighting Corbyn with Miliband”, while the speed with which the debate about violent crime became a conversation about spending cuts proves that no matter how fringe Corbyn’s views on defence and foreign policy, his party is framing the domestic debate.
What Conservatives have been inept at doing is preventing the elision of the argument that some public services could do with a bit more money with the rest of John McDonnell and Jeremy Corbyn’s dangerous plans for the British economy.
From the cost of living and crime to the NHS and tuition fees, the Conservatives too often make the mistake of buying into Labour’s logic.
They may be lucky enough to get away with it. The dim-wittedness and noxious Marxism that make up Corbyn’s world view may yet disqualify him from the top job in the eyes of voters.
But Corbyn’s missteps risk a sense of complacency in the Tory ranks. If the Conservative Party wants to build a bulwark of their own not just against Corbyn but a more plausible left-wing Labour leader, they urgently need to reframe the domestic debate, and offer the kind of sustainable, market-based policy solutions that actually work.
