British politics has now entered a new and unpredictable phase. After their party’s smashing defeat at the latest election, most Tories assumed that Labour would be in power for at least a decade. In many cases, the stress was on the ‘at least’. Tory morale was rare as bananas at the end of the Second World War, especially as Nigel Farage’s merry men appeared to have trousered a large number of right-wing voters.
Yet there was always one reason for avoiding abject pessimism. The British electorate has never been more volatile. It was clear that large numbers of Tory voters had chosen to vote against their party in a number of ways, including abstention. This does not mean that they had permanently transferred their allegiance to another party. After a trouncing victory, it often seems that the winners will also have sewn up the next election. But this often proves illusory. 1945, 1959: huge majorities which dissipated in the course of a single Parliament. In both 1983 and 1987, it appeared that Mrs Thatcher had secured a two-Parliament victory. In neither case – despite the ‘87 outcome – did it feel like that by mid-Parliament.
In 2019, some of us thought that Boris Johnson could go on to stay in Downing Street for ten years and reshape British politics, while Labour languished with a nasty case of long Corbyn. We had reckoned without one factor: Boris Johnson. Of course, Tony Blair always did look like a long-term electoral wizard, but he was the exception. Turning to the present, Keir Starmer is no Tony Blair. Instead of wondering whether Starmer could go on to win a third term, people are now wondering whether he might be replaced before the end of this Parliament. Although the answer is almost certainly no, it is interesting that the question is even asked. Another question is also being asked, which would have seemed inconceivable four months ago. Could the Tories actually win next time?
The Tory party’s green credentials may be open to question, but there is a piquant green parallel, with the Green Knight of chivalric romance. He has his head cut off, and instantly puts it back on. In 1832, after fruitlessly opposing the Great Reform Bill, the Tories seemed doomed to indefinite exclusion from power. Peel put that right. Back then, it seemed that there would be a two-party struggle for the support of the rising urban middle classes. Peel was in a strong position to face down the challenge of the Whigs/Liberals. But then Disraeli destroyed his Government.
In those days, that mattered less. Even a Tory partisan could accept that administrations headed by Russell, Palmerston or Aberdeen would not wreck the country. The two-party conflict continued, until the Liberals sank into the bogs of Ireland. Then the Tories returned the compliment, by splitting over protectionism.
That gave the Liberals their opportunity in 1906. Again, it seemed that Toryism would decline into a Carlist rump. Yet again, however – and the same was true after 1945 – the Tories had a life-preserving instinct: virtually part of their political unconscious. They knew that they must not find themselves to be on the wrong side of history – or anyway not for long.
Fast forward to 2024. Once again, history appeared to have turned its back on the Tories. There is a good old Scottish word, ‘scunnered’. For the benefit of Sassenachs with a limited vocabulary, it means fed up, redoubled in spades. By July this year, vast numbers of voters were scunnered with the Tories. When, if ever, would the party be able to command a hearing, instead of being treated like the King of Spain on a visit to Valencia?
There is an obvious answer. Send for the Green Knight, or in this case, Kemi Badenoch. She starts with two advantages. First, there is Keir Stumbler. No one except insomniacs will want to listen to him for long. Second, a super-stumbling Budget. It is hard to tell whether its economics or its politics were worse. The Government seemed determined to tax everything it could think of, except donations from Lord Alli. While striking at jobs, growth, entrepreneurship and wealth creation, our new masters assured us that they were pursuing growth. What? Are they knaves, or fools – or both? They must certainly assume that the voters are fools. The Starmerites may find that they have already exceeded the threshold of foolery and that those whom they have attempted to deceive will not forget.
The Tories, meanwhile, have chosen the leader most likely to cure the deafness problems of discontented ex-Tories. Badenoch will find a hearing, if only out of curiosity. Labour will want to go on fighting the last election while trying to remind everyone about Liz Truss. But in this, their tone is increasingly desperate. Badenoch is new. It should be easy for her to draw a line from past to present. She should concede that there were mistakes, especially on immigration. She should also remind everyone that the reason the public finances, and the tax burden, came under pressure is that the previous government protected the economy from Covid. Above all, she should nail the £22 billion black hole falsehood. The only black hole is the one in this Government’s reputation for honesty.
Apart from shredding Stumbler at the despatch box, Badenoch has time to think though sound policies, especially on immigration, welfare reform and complex legal matters, including the ECHR. But there is one other rhetorical task. In trying to understand the Badenoch phenomenon, a number of commentators have talked about right-wing and left-wing. This needs countering. All wise Tories share many ideas in common. They have a profound reverence for their country and its ancient institutions. Like Lord Melbourne, and Kemi Badenoch, they think that it is a wonderful privilege to have been born British, and they take pride in our history.
As for more mundane matters, Tories believe that taxes should be cut whenever it is safe to do so. They would be happy to steal a phrase attributed to Gladstone. Money is best left to fructify in the pockets of the people. Although any government will have to spend money, the people must be allowed to earn it.
We call ourselves Tories or Conservatives, which is a valuable linguistic coalition. ‘Tory’ comes from the seventeenth century, back to the romantic age of Church and King. Politics benefits from an element of romance. With ‘Conservative’ we are in a later era: the Younger Pitt and his successors. Those crisp syllables are redolent of the counting-house and the Gods of the Copybook Headings: another crucial aspect of any sound government. So both words are part of a heritage, to be savoured in harmony.
Among the ancient institutions which English Tories revere – Scotland is different – the Common Law ranks high. The Blairites blundered into thoughtless legal and constitutional reforms. Tories will have to put that right, not because we are right-wing or left-wing but because we are the sensible wing. The facts of life are Conservative. We can and will argue about particular policies, and so we should. All important issues are complex, and anyone who thinks that there are easy answers has not begun to understand the question. Tories should not be afraid of vigorous intellectual debate, and the leadership should encourage it.
We have a new leader who is intellectually self-confident: more so, arguably, than Margaret Thatcher in her early days. Badenoch will now have the opportunity to display her qualities, and she is admirably hungry for success. It is now time for a temerarious prediction. Within a couple of years she will be widely acclaimed as one of the most exciting political leaders on the planet.
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