There are two ways to prevent a ‘no deal’ exit from the EU. Either MPs vote for a negotiated deal or the Government revokes Article 50 to stop Brexit altogether.
So far, there does not appear to be a parliamentary majority to support either option. However, at the same time, the vast majority of MPs are against taking the UK out of the EU without a deal. So what can they do to stop ‘no deal’ from happening?
Time is short. Theresa May has committed to holding another ‘meaningful vote’ on her Brexit deal by 12 March, but after a significant defeat in January – when she first brought her deal to the Commons – the Prime Minister needs over 100 MPs to change their mind.
However, even if she clears that hurdle the Government will still need to pass the Withdrawal Agreement Bill before it can ratify the treaty. If Parliament doesn’t approve a deal the UK will, with the Article 50 deadline set by EU law for the 29 March (two years after the Prime Minister ‘triggered’ the exit process), leave the EU without a deal.
MPs who have spoken out against a no deal outcome have tabled – and passed – amendments to highlight their concerns. On 8 January MPs amended the Finance Bill to prevent one clause (which allows ministers to make small changes to UK tax law in light of Brexit) from coming into force until MPs had either approved a deal, voted in favour of leaving without a deal, or the Government had requested an extension of Article 50. On 29 January a majority of MPs voted in favour of an amendment to a government motion tabled by Caroline Spelman which said the House of Commons was opposed to the UK leaving the EU without a deal.
In the coming days and weeks MPs could continue to table and pass these kinds of amendments – both to primary legislation or to government motions but they are not legally binding and do not change the legal default. The UK will still leave the EU on March 29. Amending primary legislation is not a risk-free option either: if the Commons continue to oppose the Government’s deal, tabling similar amendments to primary legislation would risk creating a gap in domestic law if the UK does end up leaving the EU on March 29 without a deal.
This week’s Brexit vote sees the focus switch to delaying Brexit, with MPs set to be given the opportunity to call for an extension to Article 50 and the 29 March deadline. Groups of MPs are coalescing around different amendments which both have the ultimate aim of requiring the Government to seek an extension of Article 50 if a deal hasn’t been approved by March 13, But even if one of these amendments was successful and the prospect of an extension to Article 50 became more likely, it would only prevent a no deal exit on the March 29. An extension to Article 50 buys time, but it does not remove the possibility of no deal at a later date.
So if MPs remain opposed to the Government’s deal and whatever changes the Prime Minister manages to agree with the EU, then no deal, sooner or later, is unavoidable. For that to change, then the House of Commons must find a majority for an alternative way forward – which the EU will be willing to negotiate. So far MPs have largely avoided tabling any ‘substantive’ amendments to government motions relating to Brexit setting out a clear alternative to her deal. But this would be the most obvious way of finding out where support lies for a different kind of Brexit.
Without this, MPs can vote down the Prime Minister’s deal and vote to extend Article 50. But this won’t stop no deal.
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