The first lesson from the Budget is: do not underestimate George Osborne. In recent months, his share price had been falling rapidly. It may just be a matter of familiarity breeding dissatisfaction, but there was a growing restiveness on the Tory backbenches. Some MPs complained that he was too political: others, not political enough. If you are a potential leadership candidate, it is always alarming if a lot of your backbenchers are looking for an excuse to find fault with you. There was also a more considered criticism. Given that the total sum that could be in play was barely more than a quarter of one percent of national income, why did we need a Budget? Was there not a risk that the Chancellor would be tempted into Brown-ite tinkering.?
Then Mr Osborne rose to his feet. Suddenly, everything seemed different. He displayed an assurance based on intellectual mastery. This is a formidable figure. The old problems persist. The private man is warm, witty and wholly unpompous. Yet in public, he can sound cold, sneery and de haut en bas. There is every likelihood that he would be an excellent Prime Minister. But could he be elected?
So there must be room for other candidates to emerge. Leaving aside the train-crash option, Boris, three other names are in play. Also in recent months, Sajid Javid’s share-price had been rocketing: the p/e was ridiculously high. But there has been a sudden fall, mainly caused by bearish – in both senses – Brexiters. They had hoped for his support. In some cases, there was relief at the thought that he might emerge, to be a strong alternative to Boris. But Mr Javid disappointed them. Nor has there yet been a resounding declaration the other way. He has yet to explain why he wants to stay in. Angry Brexiters attribute this to unhappiness, but there is another explanation. The Stayers-in have by no means fired all their artillery, which is wise, given that there are a hundred campaigning days to go. Long before the end, we will be hearing from Mr Javid. At its current low levels, shares in him are a buy.
But there is a bigger bargain, though you will have to be quick. Hardly anyone has yet heard of Stephen Crabb, the Welsh Secretary, and the second youngest member of the Cabinet, but he is a fascinating fellow. After having to leave his father, who was violent, his mother brought up three sons in a council house. Stephen went to Bristol University and then to the London Business School, on a scholarship. Since graduating, he has done a lot of charitable work. This is a man who does not just talk about the Big Society, equality of opportunity and ‘we’re all in this together’. He exemplifies them. He is hugely popular among Tory MPs. Ask them if he could be the next Leader, and there is usually an initial hesitant surprise, followed by: ‘That’s a thought.’
Mr Crabb is better placed than John Major was, two years before he became PM.
That brings us to our third candidate. Assuming that David Cameron wins the referendum, his position would be impregnable. If he had to ask his Parliamentary colleagues for permission to resign, it would be refused, by a comfortable majority. So is he determined to go? Mr Cameron is an obstinate man. He rarely changes his mind or alters his decision. But of late, there have been reports of a hint of hesitancy. He enjoys the job and its good at it. So why not carry on?
There is, of, course, an unknown factor which overshadows Tory Leadership calculations. Will Jeremy Corbyn survive? If Mr Corbyn were still in place, the Tories could win the next Election led my a dustbin with a blue rag tied round it. But might Labour move for a sneaky replacement? Major Dan Jarvis, MBE (Mil), late of the Parachute Regiment, is on manoeuvres. He has one advantage. There is no other non ultra-left alternative to Mr Corbyn. Four candidates fought the last Labour leadership contest. Although by far the worst one won, the others were also useless. Although it would be an extraordinary shift from Jeremy Corbyn to Major Jarvis, there was a time that the Labour party came back from the dead, under a Major: Major Attlee, as he was often known. ‘Because I do not hope to turn’: Dan Jarvis is encouraging a lot of sensible Labour people to believe in the possibility of resurrection.
Fortunately for the Tories, the senseless still dominate the Labour electorate. It may be that the new Major will have his chance, but probably not in this decade.