Tragedy in Israel/Palestine: by contrast, banality in the UK. As for British politics, who would have thought it? No government, let alone one with such a large majority, has ever dissipated such an advantage so rapidly. As for Sue Gray, I have never met her, but some of those who do know her are bewildered. They say that she tends to be deeply loyal to her current political masters, irrespective of their own views. They also assume that her own opinions would incline her to the Left. In that case, what caused the problem with the Starmerites? There seems to be a cultural explanation. Sue Gray has the ethos of a traditional civil servant. Somehow, this aroused hostility among the Prime Minister’s acolytes, who regarded the Civil Service with suspicion. If so, that was silly of them. After much maltreatment, there are still many excellent people in the British Civil Service who genuinely help a government to deliver its business. She would have done that for Keir Starmer. If his people could not use her, so much the worse for them. This suggests that his Government, which already seems to be faltering, is even weaker than we thought.
The Labour conference, which ought to have been an Imperial Roman Triumph, was a tetchy affair. In Birmingham, the Tories, who ought to have felt crushed underfoot, were buoyant. In one respect, this is unrealistic of the defeated party. Labour may be bewildered and, with their leader, stumbling. But they are in power with a formidable majority. One suspects that Starmer, though inept, might be capable of raising his game.
Yet that is not inevitable. He has lost a considerable amount of political capital, and the Tories could exploit that if they make the right choice for their new leader. Kemi Badenoch is young and relatively inexperienced. She has a reputation for truculence and intolerance. Some of the party’s senior figures wonder if this would mean that she was too much of a risk. I am old enough to remember that all of those doubts once overshadowed the Tory political landscape. In 1975, there was a woman called Margaret Thatcher. A lot of Tories decided to support her, any great enthusiasm, and merely faute de mieux. History tells the rest of the tale.
This does not mean that young Badenoch is a second Margaret Thatcher. But she has a good brain, a quick wit and a greater intellectual self-confidence, in my opinion, than the young Thatcher had. If Badenoch became leader, it would be easy to imagine her making a mockery of Starmer in the Commons. He could easily end up as a blood-boltered old bull waiting for the matador’s merciful quietus – except that he would have to endure Prime Minister’s questions again and again.
She would also frustrate Labour’s political strategy, which does exist, despite evidence to the contrary. They want to go on fighting the last election. When the going gets rough, they would do what the pigs did in ‘Animal Farm’, addressing the other animals’ sufferings: surely you don’t want Jones back? But this has already come unstuck. One reputation has suffered: another has risen. Before the election, there was a lot of talk about Rachel Reeves. She was supposed to be very able. Few people are saying that now. Meanwhile, Jeremy Hunt has been the most effective politician since the election. He has destroyed the argument for Labour’s inherited black hole, while demonstrating that they have dug their own one.
Equally, if the Tories were led by Badenoch, it would be impossible to claim that the Party was old, stale, pale or whatever. The past could recede into the past. Starmer could easily be caricatured as old, stale and self-serving. That could become easier, for an obvious reason. Keir Starmer is not that bright. He is simply not up to being Prime Minister. The right Tory champion could demonstrate and expose his weakness. I believe that Kemi Badenoch would have the ability to do just that.
Click here to subscribe to our daily briefing – the best pieces from CapX and across the web.
CapX depends on the generosity of its readers. If you value what we do, please consider making a donation.