It’s day one and event one for the Centre for Policy Studies/CapX roster. The room is packed. Tory Party members, hacks and and other ne’er-do-wells are gathered to watch Robert Jenrick in conversation with CPS Director and CapX Editor-In-Chief Robert Colvile. Jenrick, with the most parliamentary backers of any of the Conservative leadership candidates, is who much of the British Right are putting their faith in to lead their party.
If he does, as some are predicting, win the race, it will not be a walk in the park. After 14 years of scandals, policy failures and infighting, the Tories aren’t in the public’s good graces. Despite Labour’s rocky start to government, polling shows that 65% of adults regard the Tories as ‘untrustworthy’. Will ‘Bobby J’ prove the man to reverse this?
Jenrick has a reputation for being energetic. Picture a combination of a Westminster wonk and the Duracell Bunny. Listening to him talk, you get a sense of the speed at which his brain works and most importantly, that he is genuinely fascinated by policy. One policy area in particular: migration. Very timely. A recent British Future study shows that immigration is a top three issue for 50% of Conservative voters. Makes sense. Tory politicians have been banging on about getting migration down for years. They haven’t. This is why two thirds of the public now don’t trust the Conservatives to control it.
What is Jenrick going to do about this? Interestingly, the subject of immigration didn’t come up until near the end of the event – partly because, as Colvile said, Jenrick set out his views on the topic months ago, in a blockbuster report for the CPS.
When asked by an audience member what his plan was, Jenrick was clear and well-rehearsed. He wants to get Britain out of the European Convention on Human Rights and place a legal cap on migration limiting numbers to the ‘tens of thousands’.
Encouraging stuff, you might be thinking to yourself. But a potential party leader and Prime Minister cannot rely on a hard stance on immigration alone. CapX readers will not need reminding that there are other areas which demand attention. Housing is a central one. When it came up in today’s event, Jenrick rightly described the Conservatives’ refusal to implement radical planning reforms as the ‘biggest policy mistake of the last Parliament’. If he takes the reins, Jenrick pledged to return to bold supply-side reform, setting the stage for ‘the most ambitious programme of urban densification and regeneration’ in modern history.
Hear, hear. That politicians have failed to implement this before has cost Britain dearly. Since at least the 1960s, the rate at which we build homes has been falling, causing house prices to skyrocket as demand dwarfs supply. From birth rates to productivity to climate change, our housing deficit has made everything worse. Think of the young (of which demographic this writer is a member). The proportion of those aged 25-34 who own their own home is just 28%, down from 51% in 1989. For the sake of self-preservation, this is an area the Tories must make strides on if they want to win their votes.
Housing and immigration weren’t the only topics discussed. Energy came up. When it comes to Net Zero targets, Jenrick is a sceptic. Under his regime, he would adopt a pragmatic approach in which the power of cheap renewables are harnessed while appreciating the continued importance of nuclear, oil and gas.
To rapturous applause, he also touched on how he would change the nature of the Conservative Party machine. In a not-so-subtle nod to the controversy surrounding Richard Holden being parachuted in to run in Basildon and Billericay, Jenrick claims he would put the wishes of party members before political expediency.
Those in favour of a smaller state, lower taxes and sensible public spending will all be giving this a big thumbs-up. But the burden of genuine power can turn brave rhetoric into a distant memory. Be honest: how many of you were quietly excited by Keir Starmer’s promises to take on Nimbys, have honest conversations about the NHS and shamelessly go for growth? I certainly was. But look at where we are now. The Government’s housing targets have been imposed on the wrong areas, doctors are getting inflation-busting pay rises and growth is being strangled by yet more interventions in the labour market.
The Conservative Party, like Labour, is full of anti-growth influences. Jenrick said in today’s CPS event that his party will not get a third chance at tackling Britain’s issues. I suspect he’s right. But if he or any of the other leadership candidates get a shot at governing and follow Starmer’s example of giving in to vested interests and base political instincts, the historic shellacking of 2024 will look like a field day.
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