The great American populist has done it again, dodging bullets – both literally and figuratively – to clinch a second term in the White House.
Naturally, Trump’s victory has provoked hysteria from the usual suspects. Supposedly sensible centrists have devolved into hysteria, crying ‘fascism’ and clutching their pearls. Somehow, I struggle to believe that a campy New York liberal with a penchant for musical theatre is poised to transform America into a theocracy – but I’ve been wrong before.
For Britain, Trump presents both challenges and opportunity – the upside potential for the UK is far greater than for our European counterparts, but our post-Brexit position also leaves us exposed. Keeping Trump onside will be a must, even if his presidency also prompts a reconsideration of our current reliance on the United States.
So what can we expect from The Donald? British commentators should be cautious of attempts to define Trump by reference to particular ideological or policy positions – he has clear instincts, but the practical manifestation of those instincts is adaptable. The President-elect is a dealmaker through and through. He can be bargained with and, if he feels that America is getting a ‘good deal’, he can be surprisingly flexible and pragmatic.
Fortunately, Trump’s protectionist instincts tend to be concentrated on eye-catching goods – cars, steel, military hardware – rather than on services or investment. To that end, the UK can afford to be less worried than a country like Germany, for whom a raft of Trump tariffs is likely to be devastating.
However, our position is not without risk. If Trump embarks on a campaign of tax-cutting and regulatory simplification, backed by Musk and co., the UK risks losing even more businesses to the American market. Couple this with Trump’s support for expanding American domestic energy production, and it’s difficult to see why businesses would choose to stay in high tax, high cost Britain when a larger and more dynamic alternative is available on the other side of the Atlantic.
Most of the key steps that the UK needs to make in order to protect itself from the worst excesses of a Trump presidency are domestic in character. Making the UK a competitive destination for investment and innovation will be a must – that means fixing our broken planning system, revising our self-destructive energy policy and relaxing our absurd regulatory burden. We are in direct economic competition with the United States; if we want to stand a fighting chance, we must be more flexible and more dynamic than our American cousins, with lower energy costs and lower barriers to entry.
One trap that Keir Starmer and friends must avoid is the temptation to draw closer to the EU, building a united European front against Washington. Our interests are better served by being a sympathetic ear in the west Atlantic, particularly as Trump looks set to bring Russia and Ukraine to the negotiation table. Those concerned about a capitulation to Putin should be drawing closer to Trump in this regard, not pulling away. Britain can be a voice for European interests in this space, bearing none of the same baggage as the French or the Germans.
And don’t overlook one of Britain’s key competitive edges when dealing with Trump – unlike his predecessor, The Donald maintains a sentimental sympathy for his mother’s birthplace. In his first term, he often invoked a fondness for Winston Churchill, and found time for golfing trips to Scotland. A shrewd government would lean into this, buttering up the new President with a gong from some chivalric order and a trip to Chartwell – with Trump, flattery goes a long way.
This charm offensive isn’t an optional extra, either; the Government must make amends for its foolish decision to allow Labour activists to campaign for Harris. If one thing about Trump is predictable, it’s his ability to hold a grudge – particularly with Nigel Farage whispering sweet nothings into his ear.
However, we must understand that we cannot afford to rely on America, even if we can work with them – that means improving our domestic defence capabilities, developing more channels for unilateral action and pursuing a genuinely competitive economic policy. This has been true for decades; our overreliance on Washington poses an enormous ‘key man risk’, which leaves us exposed to the whims of American policymakers. It’s time to recognise that post-Brexit Britain’s strength lies in its ability to move flexibly within a network of alliances which does include the United States and the EU, but also our partners in East Asia, the Gulf and the wider Anglosphere.
That said, the Trump presidency should be an opportunity for Britain – a chance to take advantage of a sympathetic American administration and to gain a competitive edge over our European neighbours. Leave your qualms about the so-called ‘rules-based international order’ at the door; now is the time for hard-bitten realism. If Starmer can play Washington and Brussels off one another, strengthen our ties to other middle powers and improve the UK’s own capacity for unilateral action, we could come out of the next four years in good shape.
Alas, I’m not holding my breath. If Labour’s early foreign misadventures are indicative of its broader approach to international affairs, we can expect to see four more years of naive posturing about mushy ideas like ‘international law’ and ‘soft power’. We must demonstrate strength and hone our competitive edge, even as we roll out the red carpet.
If there’s one thing that the President-elect won’t respect, it’s weakness.
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