I do not believe that any incoming Government has ever stumbled into a slough of despond quite so quickly. Keir Starmer won a huge majority because of the vagaries of the electoral system and the unpopularity of the Tories. Those remain his sole assets. Indeed, a large number of people who used to say ‘he can’t be worse than the present lot’ are now not so sure. He has lots of time to recover and Bagehot would have reminded us not to underestimate the brute force of a Parliamentary majority.
Even so, this Government has a transient feel, more appropriate to the end of an unsuccessful Parliament than to a hopeful first act. It might seem absurd to write off Starmer at this early stage. Yet it also seems implausible to imagine him commanding political authority and public respect.
We should, however, acknowledge his achievement. After the Boris Johnson election, when Jeremy Corbyn led his party to disaster, there seemed no certainty that Labour would recover in any short order. Some of us were even prepared to believe – albeit briefly – that Boris was in a position to dominate the political high ground, while Labour would be condemned to long Corbynism.
As for Johnson, sic transit gloria charlatanry. As for Corbyn, Labour MPs realised that they faced an existential choice. Did they want to acquiesce in endless defeat? Keir Starmer may have been a dull plodder, but he was at least a survivor.
While he may have succeeded, there was a problem. From the outset, the Starmer administration was condemned to suffer from one of the defects of its qualities. His own political viscera put him a long way to the Left of most voters. He had a solution to this. Say as little as possible about his own beliefs while blaming everything on the Tories. Hope that in the longer term, he could bring about an economic recovery and then spend the proceeds on left-wing objectives. In the mean time, say nothing to frighten the horses, while wooing the electorate with banalities, platitudes and Tory-bashing.
All well and good, until it worked. Once that happened, the defects became apparent. Starmer and his colleagues were confronted by the realities of government. In the long run, everything would depend on economic growth. But it has become increasingly clear that Labour has no idea how to help to make that happen. On the contrary: their economic policies are based on a blend of ignorance and malevolence.
They began by inventing the Tory black hole, with the aim of justifying tax increases. Yet there was an immediate difficulty. From the outset, the evidence for this black hole was unconvincing. To be fair to the new Government, they then set out to dig a real black hole by piling inflation-plus pay increases on every trade union leader who was sympathetic to Labour. Although the bill may be short of the mythical £22 billion, it is mounting.
As for the tax rises, it seems increasingly clear where they will fall. If you are building up a business or have been planning to take on new workers, you had better factor in a new element in your corporate plans. You will need to allow for higher taxes on entrepreneurship, job creation, wealth creation, ambition, aspiration and – while we are on the subject – on future economic growth.
There is no great harm in a Labour government planning to spend some of the proceeds of growth on social welfare, subject to two caveats. First, try to ensure that this new spending does good and delivers value for money. Second, do not spend the money until the higher revenues from growth have arrived. There is also a third caveat, about which no sensible government should need reminding. Do not impose taxes that will hobble the horses of growth which you hope to gallop.
On the basis of the recent leaking and briefing, it seems likely that the Reeves Budget due at the end of October will be one of the most ill-judged and destructive in British economic history. Instead of having the courage of their convictions and pushing forward with some bold pro-growth policies, Labour have allowed their adolescent left-wing prejudices to come to the fore. They were fundamentally unprepared for the challenges of running the country. The country will pay a price.
There is a contrast. After 1975, while Margaret Thatcher was preparing for government, she encouraged thought. Think-tanks emerged. Some formerly left-wing intellectuals repudiated their previous allegiance and joined the Tories. Above all, the Conservative Research Department built up its resources and got stuck in to hard thinking about policy. This meant that when Thatcher won, she and her Ministers were, at least to an extent, prepared for the battlefields of Government.
Something similar is happening now. Around Westminster, Tories are thinking and debating. Thus far, even during a Leadership contest, this has been a relatively civilised affair. Everyone seems to be aware of one of Ronald Reagan’s commandments: ‘Thou shalt not speak ill of a fellow Republican’. A fellow Conservative with whom one disagrees should not be treated as an Amalekite, to be smitten hip and thigh.
A Conservative intellectual revival was much needed – and it now seems to be happening. That should give beleaguered Tories some tentative grounds for optimism. In the immediate aftermath of a shattering defeat, many Tories were ready to despair and write off any question of electoral revival at least for the rest of this decade. Now, the gloom seems less inspissated. We have suffered from the whips and scorpions of volatility. Within a surprisingly brief timescale, that capricious phenomenon could be afflicting other parties. For the present, Tories should concentrate on hard thinking, spiced with a little cautious, covert hope.
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