Over the last few days President Obama welcomed fifty world leaders to Washington, DC for a summit on nuclear security. You can read the official guide to the summit on the White House website.

Quizzed about the issues at the heart of the summit, 63% of YouGov’s First Verdict panel expect that an act of nuclear terror is likely to occur over the next decade – somewhere in the world. That’s three times as many who don’t expect an incident to take place.

A large majority of the First Verdict panellists were also pessimistic about the likelihood of “major” nuclear disarmament over the same period. 29% were hopeful that it might occur.

But am I correct to use loaded terms like “pessimistic” and “hopeful”?

I ask, because in wanting a world without nuclear weapons, President Obama is pursuing an objective that was also advanced by Ronald Reagan. The popular Republican president once said “we seek the total elimination one day of nuclear weapons from the face of the Earth.” It was not an objective shared by Margaret Thatcher, however – his key ally in the Cold War. Quoting another great leader – Winston Churchill – this is what Mrs Thatcher said in a 1987 speech inside the Kremlin:

“The fact is that nuclear weapons exist and the knowledge of how to make them cannot be erased. Conventional weapons have never been enough to deter war. Two world wars showed us that. They also showed us how terrible a war fought even with conventional weapons can be yet nuclear weapons have deterred not only nuclear war but conventional war in Europe as well. A world without nuclear weapons may be a dream but you cannot base a sure defence on dreams. Without far greater trust and confidence between East and West than exists at present, a world without nuclear weapons would be less stable and more dangerous for all of us. I will recall to you some words of Sir Winston Churchill: “Be careful above all things” he said, “not to let go of the atomic weapon until you are sure and more than sure that other means of preserving peace are in your hands.” That is why the Government which I lead will not abandon the security provided for our country and for the NATO alliance by nuclear weapons. Our own nuclear forces will remain at the minimal level needed to guarantee our own security and contribute to the security of our allies. They may be very small compared to the forces of the Soviet Union but for us they are and will remain crucial.”

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Tim Montgomerie is Editor of Portrait of America